**Trader consensus centers on 500K-550K total votes cast as the most likely range for Montana’s November 3, 2026 U.S. Senate general election.** This positioning stems from the state’s history of solid midterm turnout—468K votes in 2022 (roughly 61% of registered voters)—combined with an open seat and active campaigning by Republican Kurt Alme, independent Seth Bodnar, and Democrat Alani Bankhead. Recent polling showing Alme ahead by double digits in a divided field has reduced perceptions of a high-stakes contest, which typically moderates mobilization efforts compared with closer races. Primary turnout of about 300K (38% of roughly 791K registered voters) provides a baseline, while Montana’s consistent above-average participation in federal elections supports expectations in the mid-500K range absent unusual weather, major late developments, or unusually intense get-out-the-vote drives. Lower ranges (400K-450K) price in the dampening effect of the fragmented opposition, while higher brackets remain possible if early voting or national attention rises.