The strong "No" consensus at 92.9% stems from the extreme rarity of Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) 6 or greater eruptions, which eject at least 10 cubic kilometers of tephra and occur roughly once every 50–100 years based on Holocene records. As of mid-September 2026, ongoing activity at sites like Kīlauea, Krakatau, and Semeru remains well below this threshold, with USGS and global monitoring networks showing no precursors such as rapid caldera inflation or widespread seismic swarms at high-threat systems. Historical analogs and current observatory data reinforce low odds for the remainder of the year. A sudden escalation at a major caldera could still alter outcomes, though no such signals appear in recent observations.