Mount Etna has produced multiple episodes of Strombolian explosions, lava fountains, and effusive flows through mid-2026, including significant June–July and August events with ash plumes and lava volumes in the millions of cubic meters, consistent with VEI 2 activity per INGV observations. As of mid-September the volcano has entered a quieter phase marked by ordinary degassing, fluctuating medium-level tremor, and only weak intermittent ash emissions from summit craters. Trader sentiment remains balanced because Etna’s frequent moderate eruptions create a high baseline likelihood of additional VEI 2+ events before year-end, yet precise timing hinges on uncertain magma recharge rates, ground deformation, and seismic patterns that monitoring networks cannot yet resolve. New INGV bulletins, updated tremor data, or renewed inflation could quickly shift probabilities by signaling renewed ascent of magma.