South Korean President Lee Jae-myung holds office under constitutional immunity that suspends criminal proceedings and blocks arrest or detention in pending cases, including election-law violations and corruption allegations, except for insurrection or treason. His five-year term, which began in 2025, extends well beyond December 2026, and the Democratic Party’s National Assembly majority makes the two-thirds vote required for impeachment structurally improbable. Recent developments, including Lee’s September 18, 2026 press conference ruling out reelection bids and urging removal of special-counsel provisions that could affect his cases, have reinforced procedural stability without triggering new legal actions. Prosecution-reform legislation separating investigative and prosecutorial functions continues to advance, but no court rulings, legislative reversals, or opposition campaigns have altered the immunity framework or generated credible arrest scenarios within the market’s timeframe. Trader consensus at 92.7% for “No” reflects these institutional barriers.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoLee Jae-myung preso antes de 2027?
Lee Jae-myung preso antes de 2027?
Sim
7% chance
$548,091 Vol.
$548,091 Vol.
31 dez 2026
Sim
7% chance
$548,091 Vol.
$548,091 Vol.
31 dez 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Leader of the Democratic Party of Korea Lee Jae-myung is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.South Korean President Lee Jae-myung holds office under constitutional immunity that suspends criminal proceedings and blocks arrest or detention in pending cases, including election-law violations and corruption allegations, except for insurrection or treason. His five-year term, which began in 2025, extends well beyond December 2026, and the Democratic Party’s National Assembly majority makes the two-thirds vote required for impeachment structurally improbable. Recent developments, including Lee’s September 18, 2026 press conference ruling out reelection bids and urging removal of special-counsel provisions that could affect his cases, have reinforced procedural stability without triggering new legal actions. Prosecution-reform legislation separating investigative and prosecutorial functions continues to advance, but no court rulings, legislative reversals, or opposition campaigns have altered the immunity framework or generated credible arrest scenarios within the market’s timeframe. Trader consensus at 92.7% for “No” reflects these institutional barriers.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Leader of the Democratic Party of Korea Lee Jae-myung is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado Aberto: Nov 5, 2025, 12:46 PM ET
Volume
$548,091Data de Término
1 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Nov 5, 2025, 12:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Leader of the Democratic Party of Korea Lee Jae-myung is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.South Korean President Lee Jae-myung holds office under constitutional immunity that suspends criminal proceedings and blocks arrest or detention in pending cases, including election-law violations and corruption allegations, except for insurrection or treason. His five-year term, which began in 2025, extends well beyond December 2026, and the Democratic Party’s National Assembly majority makes the two-thirds vote required for impeachment structurally improbable. Recent developments, including Lee’s September 18, 2026 press conference ruling out reelection bids and urging removal of special-counsel provisions that could affect his cases, have reinforced procedural stability without triggering new legal actions. Prosecution-reform legislation separating investigative and prosecutorial functions continues to advance, but no court rulings, legislative reversals, or opposition campaigns have altered the immunity framework or generated credible arrest scenarios within the market’s timeframe. Trader consensus at 92.7% for “No” reflects these institutional barriers.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Leader of the Democratic Party of Korea Lee Jae-myung is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying arrest/detention includes:
* Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement)
* Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant
* Being formally booked or processed following detention
* Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station
* Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney
* Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention
* An arrest warrant being issued but not executed
* Being questioned or interviewed without arrest
* Being named in an indictment without arrest
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$548,091Data de Término
1 jan 2027Mercado Aberto
Nov 5, 2025, 12:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...South Korean President Lee Jae-myung holds office under constitutional immunity that suspends criminal proceedings and blocks arrest or detention in pending cases, including election-law violations and corruption allegations, except for insurrection or treason. His five-year term, which began in 2025, extends well beyond December 2026, and the Democratic Party’s National Assembly majority makes the two-thirds vote required for impeachment structurally improbable. Recent developments, including Lee’s September 18, 2026 press conference ruling out reelection bids and urging removal of special-counsel provisions that could affect his cases, have reinforced procedural stability without triggering new legal actions. Prosecution-reform legislation separating investigative and prosecutorial functions continues to advance, but no court rulings, legislative reversals, or opposition campaigns have altered the immunity framework or generated credible arrest scenarios within the market’s timeframe. Trader consensus at 92.7% for “No” reflects these institutional barriers.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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