The pending federal indictment against former FBI Director James Comey on threat-related charges stemming from a 2025 social media post remains in pretrial stages as of September 2026, with arraignment set for late September and trial scheduled for October. Defense motions seeking dismissal on First Amendment, selective prosecution, and other constitutional grounds are under active judicial review, creating substantial procedural barriers to any swift resolution. Even if the case advances without dismissal, conviction and formal sentencing hearings typically extend well beyond an initial trial date in federal court, especially amid likely appeals. Traders assign overwhelming probability against a prison sentence being imposed during the remainder of the calendar year due to these timing and legal uncertainties, though an unusually rapid plea agreement or accelerated schedule could still alter the trajectory before year-end.