Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026 severely damaged Iran’s declared enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, rendering many inoperable and trapping much of its approximately 440 kg stockpile of 60% enriched uranium under rubble. The IAEA has lacked continuity of knowledge on this material and other sites for over a year due to restricted inspector access, while reporting no confirmed resumption of enrichment. Fresh construction activity at the underground Pickaxe Mountain complex near Natanz has been noted via satellite imagery, yet it remains uninspected and non-operational for enrichment. The IAEA’s September 10, 2026, referral of Iran to the UN Security Council for safeguards noncompliance adds diplomatic pressure, and U.S. officials have signaled continued monitoring. These factors, combined with the brief window before 2027, underpin trader consensus that a nuclear device is unlikely.