Claude Fable 5.1's September 1 release as Anthropic's latest frontier large language model drives the overwhelming trader consensus, with its upgrades in long-horizon agentic coding, multistep reasoning, and knowledge work benchmarks outperforming prior Fable 5 and Opus 5 variants across evaluations like Terminal-Bench and Humanity's Last Exam. The model delivers higher performance at similar or reduced effective cost through efficiency gains and a 1M-token context window, positioning it ahead of competitors in the days leading to the September 21 resolution. With no major rival launches reported since mid-September, the strong positioning reflects recent verified capabilities and the short time horizon. A last-minute competitor announcement or benchmark reversal favoring another model could still shift outcomes, though such developments appear unlikely given current industry timelines.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoMelhor modelo de IA em 21 de setembro?
Melhor modelo de IA em 21 de setembro?
claude-fable-5.1-max 94%
Outro 5%
claude-opus-5-max 1.3%
claude-opus-4-6-high <1%
$28,899 Vol.
$28,899 Vol.
21 set 2026
claude-fable-5.1-max
94%
Outro
5%
claude-opus-5-max
1%
claude-opus-4-6-high
1%
claude-opus-5-high
<1%
claude-fable-5.1-max 94%
Outro 5%
claude-opus-5-max 1.3%
claude-opus-4-6-high <1%
$28,899 Vol.
$28,899 Vol.
21 set 2026
claude-fable-5.1-max
$13,380 Vol.
94%
Outro
$9,789 Vol.
5%
claude-opus-5-max
$2,163 Vol.
1%
claude-opus-4-6-high
$1,229 Vol.
1%
claude-opus-5-high
$2,338 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Claude Fable 5.1's September 1 release as Anthropic's latest frontier large language model drives the overwhelming trader consensus, with its upgrades in long-horizon agentic coding, multistep reasoning, and knowledge work benchmarks outperforming prior Fable 5 and Opus 5 variants across evaluations like Terminal-Bench and Humanity's Last Exam. The model delivers higher performance at similar or reduced effective cost through efficiency gains and a 1M-token context window, positioning it ahead of competitors in the days leading to the September 21 resolution. With no major rival launches reported since mid-September, the strong positioning reflects recent verified capabilities and the short time horizon. A last-minute competitor announcement or benchmark reversal favoring another model could still shift outcomes, though such developments appear unlikely given current industry timelines.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Mercado Aberto: Sep 3, 2026, 10:16 AM ET
Volume
$28,899Data de Término
21 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 3, 2026, 10:16 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Claude Fable 5.1's September 1 release as Anthropic's latest frontier large language model drives the overwhelming trader consensus, with its upgrades in long-horizon agentic coding, multistep reasoning, and knowledge work benchmarks outperforming prior Fable 5 and Opus 5 variants across evaluations like Terminal-Bench and Humanity's Last Exam. The model delivers higher performance at similar or reduced effective cost through efficiency gains and a 1M-token context window, positioning it ahead of competitors in the days leading to the September 21 resolution. With no major rival launches reported since mid-September, the strong positioning reflects recent verified capabilities and the short time horizon. A last-minute competitor announcement or benchmark reversal favoring another model could still shift outcomes, though such developments appear unlikely given current industry timelines.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volume
$28,899Data de Término
21 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Sep 3, 2026, 10:16 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Claude Fable 5.1's September 1 release as Anthropic's latest frontier large language model drives the overwhelming trader consensus, with its upgrades in long-horizon agentic coding, multistep reasoning, and knowledge work benchmarks outperforming prior Fable 5 and Opus 5 variants across evaluations like Terminal-Bench and Humanity's Last Exam. The model delivers higher performance at similar or reduced effective cost through efficiency gains and a 1M-token context window, positioning it ahead of competitors in the days leading to the September 21 resolution. With no major rival launches reported since mid-September, the strong positioning reflects recent verified capabilities and the short time horizon. A last-minute competitor announcement or benchmark reversal favoring another model could still shift outcomes, though such developments appear unlikely given current industry timelines.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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