Recent polls show a tight five-party contest for seats in Berlin’s Abgeordnetenhaus, with CDU, Linke, AfD, Grüne and SPD clustered between roughly 15 and 21 percent and frequent shifts in the lead. This narrow spread keeps fourth-place probabilities fluid, as small movements in turnout or late swings among undecided voters can reorder the middle pack. Grüne’s consistent mid-teens showing and recent stabilization around 16–18 percent underpin trader consensus favoring the party for fourth, while AfD gains and CDU volatility create competing scenarios. The September 20 vote date, combined with ongoing coalition math and the five-percent threshold, means any final-week polling shift or differential mobilization could quickly alter fourth-place odds.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoGrüne 47%
AfD 22%
CDU 16.7%
SPD 15%
$12,514 Vol.
$12,514 Vol.
20 set 2026
Grüne
47%
AfD
22%
CDU
17%
SPD
12%
Linke
7%
BSW
1%
FW
1%
FDP
1%
Grüne 47%
AfD 22%
CDU 16.7%
SPD 15%
$12,514 Vol.
$12,514 Vol.
20 set 2026
Grüne
$6,535 Vol.
47%
AfD
$4,140 Vol.
22%
CDU
$182 Vol.
17%
SPD
$344 Vol.
12%
Linke
$738 Vol.
7%
BSW
$212 Vol.
1%
FW
$209 Vol.
1%
FDP
$154 Vol.
1%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the fourth-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the fourth finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Recent polls show a tight five-party contest for seats in Berlin’s Abgeordnetenhaus, with CDU, Linke, AfD, Grüne and SPD clustered between roughly 15 and 21 percent and frequent shifts in the lead. This narrow spread keeps fourth-place probabilities fluid, as small movements in turnout or late swings among undecided voters can reorder the middle pack. Grüne’s consistent mid-teens showing and recent stabilization around 16–18 percent underpin trader consensus favoring the party for fourth, while AfD gains and CDU volatility create competing scenarios. The September 20 vote date, combined with ongoing coalition math and the five-percent threshold, means any final-week polling shift or differential mobilization could quickly alter fourth-place odds.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the fourth-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the fourth finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the fourth-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the fourth finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Mercado Aberto: Aug 20, 2026, 2:14 PM ET
Volume
$12,514Data de Término
20 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 20, 2026, 2:14 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the fourth-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the fourth finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Recent polls show a tight five-party contest for seats in Berlin’s Abgeordnetenhaus, with CDU, Linke, AfD, Grüne and SPD clustered between roughly 15 and 21 percent and frequent shifts in the lead. This narrow spread keeps fourth-place probabilities fluid, as small movements in turnout or late swings among undecided voters can reorder the middle pack. Grüne’s consistent mid-teens showing and recent stabilization around 16–18 percent underpin trader consensus favoring the party for fourth, while AfD gains and CDU volatility create competing scenarios. The September 20 vote date, combined with ongoing coalition math and the five-percent threshold, means any final-week polling shift or differential mobilization could quickly alter fourth-place odds.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the fourth-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the fourth finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the fourth-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the fourth finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Volume
$12,514Data de Término
20 set 2026Mercado Aberto
Aug 20, 2026, 2:14 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polls show a tight five-party contest for seats in Berlin’s Abgeordnetenhaus, with CDU, Linke, AfD, Grüne and SPD clustered between roughly 15 and 21 percent and frequent shifts in the lead. This narrow spread keeps fourth-place probabilities fluid, as small movements in turnout or late swings among undecided voters can reorder the middle pack. Grüne’s consistent mid-teens showing and recent stabilization around 16–18 percent underpin trader consensus favoring the party for fourth, while AfD gains and CDU volatility create competing scenarios. The September 20 vote date, combined with ongoing coalition math and the five-percent threshold, means any final-week polling shift or differential mobilization could quickly alter fourth-place odds.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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