Incumbent Republican Tom Cotton holds a commanding position in the 2026 Arkansas Senate race due to the state's consistent Republican dominance, including Donald Trump's 30-point margin in 2024, and his established record since taking office in 2015. Polling averages show Cotton ahead by roughly 8 points, with nonpartisan forecasts rating the contest Solid or Safe Republican. Democrat Hallie Shoffner, a farmer who won her primary, has focused on issues like healthcare and agriculture but trails significantly in fundraising and endorsements, including recent NRA support for Cotton. A Libertarian candidate adds a minor factor. Trader consensus at 94% for Cotton aligns with these structural advantages and historical patterns, though late developments such as national shifts, turnout changes, or candidate-specific events before November 3 could still influence the outcome.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · AtualizadoVencedor da eleição para o Senado do Arkansas
Vencedor da eleição para o Senado do Arkansas
$17,081 Vol.
$17,081 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Tom Cotton (R)
94%
Hallie Shoffner (D)
5%
$17,081 Vol.
$17,081 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Tom Cotton (R)
$12,595 Vol.
94%
Hallie Shoffner (D)
$4,486 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Arkansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Tom Cotton holds a commanding position in the 2026 Arkansas Senate race due to the state's consistent Republican dominance, including Donald Trump's 30-point margin in 2024, and his established record since taking office in 2015. Polling averages show Cotton ahead by roughly 8 points, with nonpartisan forecasts rating the contest Solid or Safe Republican. Democrat Hallie Shoffner, a farmer who won her primary, has focused on issues like healthcare and agriculture but trails significantly in fundraising and endorsements, including recent NRA support for Cotton. A Libertarian candidate adds a minor factor. Trader consensus at 94% for Cotton aligns with these structural advantages and historical patterns, though late developments such as national shifts, turnout changes, or candidate-specific events before November 3 could still influence the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Arkansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Mercado Aberto: Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ET
Volume
$17,081Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Arkansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Tom Cotton holds a commanding position in the 2026 Arkansas Senate race due to the state's consistent Republican dominance, including Donald Trump's 30-point margin in 2024, and his established record since taking office in 2015. Polling averages show Cotton ahead by roughly 8 points, with nonpartisan forecasts rating the contest Solid or Safe Republican. Democrat Hallie Shoffner, a farmer who won her primary, has focused on issues like healthcare and agriculture but trails significantly in fundraising and endorsements, including recent NRA support for Cotton. A Libertarian candidate adds a minor factor. Trader consensus at 94% for Cotton aligns with these structural advantages and historical patterns, though late developments such as national shifts, turnout changes, or candidate-specific events before November 3 could still influence the outcome.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Arkansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$17,081Data de Término
3 nov 2026Mercado Aberto
Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Tom Cotton holds a commanding position in the 2026 Arkansas Senate race due to the state's consistent Republican dominance, including Donald Trump's 30-point margin in 2024, and his established record since taking office in 2015. Polling averages show Cotton ahead by roughly 8 points, with nonpartisan forecasts rating the contest Solid or Safe Republican. Democrat Hallie Shoffner, a farmer who won her primary, has focused on issues like healthcare and agriculture but trails significantly in fundraising and endorsements, including recent NRA support for Cotton. A Libertarian candidate adds a minor factor. Trader consensus at 94% for Cotton aligns with these structural advantages and historical patterns, though late developments such as national shifts, turnout changes, or candidate-specific events before November 3 could still influence the outcome.
Resumo experimental gerado por IA com dados do Polymarket. Isto não é aconselhamento de trading e não tem qualquer papel na resolução deste mercado. · Atualizado
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