**Ongoing US-Iran hostilities since the February 2026 airstrikes and June memorandum of understanding have centered on air and missile campaigns, sanctions, and Strait of Hormuz pressures rather than ground operations.** Sporadic strikes and negotiations through mediators like Qatar and Pakistan continued into September 2026 amid economic strain on Iran, but US actions have emphasized aerial targeting of military and coastal sites alongside diplomatic efforts. Military analysts highlight the extraordinary risks, troop requirements, and logistical challenges of a large-scale ground invasion of mainland Iran, noting preferences for limited options such as island seizures or sustained pressure short of occupation. These factors underpin traders’ strong consensus that a full US invasion remains unlikely before 2027.