Mixed-to-negative early reviews for Paul Greengrass’s R-rated historical drama have anchored trader expectations for a soft domestic debut, with the sub-$4.5 million bin holding the clearest edge. Critics cite a lack of inspired direction and emotional depth despite Andrew Garfield’s lead turn as a 1381 peasant rebel, tempering word-of-mouth ahead of the September 11–13 frame. Focus Features and Blumhouse’s limited marketing push, combined with September’s typically quiet post-holiday corridor and competition from stronger holdovers, reinforces the market’s lean toward modest opening numbers. Any late surge in audience interest or stronger-than-expected presales could still nudge results into the mid-4 million range, but current sentiment points to a muted theatrical start.