**Jack Lowden leads trader sentiment at 37.9% implied probability** following recent insider signals that the casting decision has been made, including pointed comments from his *Slow Horses* co-star Gary Oldman that producers “have picked him” but have not yet announced, alongside supportive remarks from screenwriter Steven Knight. This momentum has elevated Lowden, a Scottish actor with spy-thriller experience, above other shortlist names such as Callum Turner, Jack Barton, and Harris Dickinson, whose own reported auditions and earlier bookmakers’ favor have kept them in contention. The elevated 18.4% on “No Bond chosen” reflects the absence of any official confirmation from Amazon MGM Studios or director Denis Villeneuve, even as Amy Pascal has indicated an announcement remains likely before year-end amid methodical final-stage testing. Traders are pricing in Lowden’s current frontrunner status while acknowledging the franchise’s history of last-minute shifts.