Recent estimates from sociologists and early polling project turnout near 74% for Spain’s November 29 snap election, driven by intense polarization, housing protests, and right-wing mobilization seeking political change after corruption cases and the Ceuta migrant surge. This would exceed the 70.4% recorded in 2023 and the long-term average near 72%. The market’s near-even split between the 66-68% and 70%+ bands reflects trader caution over whether left-leaning abstention from disillusionment will offset right-wing enthusiasm, alongside uncertainty about how the campaign and new voters in an expanded census ultimately affect participation. Key variables include the scale of youth and regional turnout plus any late developments that heighten or dampen overall engagement.