Incumbent Democratic Rep. Laura Gillen holds a commanding position in the NY-04 House race due to her 2024 victory in the swing district, a Democratic voter registration edge of over 70,000, and a substantial fundraising lead exceeding $5 million. The June 2026 primaries confirmed her unopposed path and selected Republican Jeanine Driscoll, the Hempstead receiver of taxes, as the challenger. Forecasters rate the seat Lean or Tilt Democratic, citing the district’s recent flips and suburban Nassau County dynamics. Trader consensus reflects these structural advantages alongside Gillen’s focus on costs and federal resources for the area. Late developments such as shifts in national midterm momentum, turnout disparities among swing voters, or major campaign events could still narrow the gap before November 3.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoNY-04 House Election Winner
NY-04 House Election Winner
NOWE
NOWE
Nov 3, 2026
Laura Gillen (D)
92%
Jeanine Driscoll (R)
4%
NOWE
NOWE
Nov 3, 2026
Laura Gillen (D)
$3,574 Wol.
92%
Jeanine Driscoll (R)
$2,047 Wol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democratic Rep. Laura Gillen holds a commanding position in the NY-04 House race due to her 2024 victory in the swing district, a Democratic voter registration edge of over 70,000, and a substantial fundraising lead exceeding $5 million. The June 2026 primaries confirmed her unopposed path and selected Republican Jeanine Driscoll, the Hempstead receiver of taxes, as the challenger. Forecasters rate the seat Lean or Tilt Democratic, citing the district’s recent flips and suburban Nassau County dynamics. Trader consensus reflects these structural advantages alongside Gillen’s focus on costs and federal resources for the area. Late developments such as shifts in national midterm momentum, turnout disparities among swing voters, or major campaign events could still narrow the gap before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Rynek otwarty: Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ET
Wolumen
$5,620Data zakończenia
Nov 4, 2026Rynek otwarty
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democratic Rep. Laura Gillen holds a commanding position in the NY-04 House race due to her 2024 victory in the swing district, a Democratic voter registration edge of over 70,000, and a substantial fundraising lead exceeding $5 million. The June 2026 primaries confirmed her unopposed path and selected Republican Jeanine Driscoll, the Hempstead receiver of taxes, as the challenger. Forecasters rate the seat Lean or Tilt Democratic, citing the district’s recent flips and suburban Nassau County dynamics. Trader consensus reflects these structural advantages alongside Gillen’s focus on costs and federal resources for the area. Late developments such as shifts in national midterm momentum, turnout disparities among swing voters, or major campaign events could still narrow the gap before November 3.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Wolumen
$5,620Data zakończenia
Nov 4, 2026Rynek otwarty
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democratic Rep. Laura Gillen holds a commanding position in the NY-04 House race due to her 2024 victory in the swing district, a Democratic voter registration edge of over 70,000, and a substantial fundraising lead exceeding $5 million. The June 2026 primaries confirmed her unopposed path and selected Republican Jeanine Driscoll, the Hempstead receiver of taxes, as the challenger. Forecasters rate the seat Lean or Tilt Democratic, citing the district’s recent flips and suburban Nassau County dynamics. Trader consensus reflects these structural advantages alongside Gillen’s focus on costs and federal resources for the area. Late developments such as shifts in national midterm momentum, turnout disparities among swing voters, or major campaign events could still narrow the gap before November 3.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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