Microsoft's June 2, 2026 Build conference announcement of MAI-Thinking-1 as its first dedicated in-house reasoning model drove recent trader sentiment, marking a clear step toward independence from OpenAI partnerships. The sparse MoE architecture (35B active parameters out of roughly 1T total, 256K context) was trained from scratch on clean enterprise data without distillation, delivering 97% on AIME 2025, competitive SWE-Bench Pro scores near Claude Opus 4.6 levels, and stronger human preference ratings than Sonnet 4.6 in blind evaluations. Public preview availability via Microsoft Foundry in mid-August, alongside the broader seven-model MAI family spanning coding, image, and voice, reinforced momentum in competitive positioning against Anthropic and other labs. No major new thinking-model updates have surfaced since the September 3 MAI-Transcribe-2 release, though further Foundry integrations or efficiency tweaks remain plausible near-term catalysts.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoNew MAI thinking model released by...?
New MAI thinking model released by...?
NOWE
Sep 30, 2026
September 30
26%
December 31
55%
$489 Wol.
September 30
$188 Wol.
26%
December 31
$301 Wol.
55%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Microsoft releases a successor to MAI-Thinking-1 that is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A “successor to MAI-Thinking-1” refers to any model explicitly designated by Microsoft as part of its MAI (Microsoft AI) model family and as a thinking or reasoning model, or presented as Microsoft’s next general-purpose reasoning model or widely regarded as the successor to MAI-Thinking-1.
Task-specialized models, cost-efficiency variants, or similar releases will not count unless they are explicitly designated as thinking or reasoning models or widely regarded as successors to MAI-Thinking-1.
Products outside of the MAI family or not designated as thinking or reasoning models will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Microsoft as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Microsoft (e.g., https://microsoft.ai/models), with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Microsoft's June 2, 2026 Build conference announcement of MAI-Thinking-1 as its first dedicated in-house reasoning model drove recent trader sentiment, marking a clear step toward independence from OpenAI partnerships. The sparse MoE architecture (35B active parameters out of roughly 1T total, 256K context) was trained from scratch on clean enterprise data without distillation, delivering 97% on AIME 2025, competitive SWE-Bench Pro scores near Claude Opus 4.6 levels, and stronger human preference ratings than Sonnet 4.6 in blind evaluations. Public preview availability via Microsoft Foundry in mid-August, alongside the broader seven-model MAI family spanning coding, image, and voice, reinforced momentum in competitive positioning against Anthropic and other labs. No major new thinking-model updates have surfaced since the September 3 MAI-Transcribe-2 release, though further Foundry integrations or efficiency tweaks remain plausible near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Microsoft releases a successor to MAI-Thinking-1 that is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A “successor to MAI-Thinking-1” refers to any model explicitly designated by Microsoft as part of its MAI (Microsoft AI) model family and as a thinking or reasoning model, or presented as Microsoft’s next general-purpose reasoning model or widely regarded as the successor to MAI-Thinking-1.
Task-specialized models, cost-efficiency variants, or similar releases will not count unless they are explicitly designated as thinking or reasoning models or widely regarded as successors to MAI-Thinking-1.
Products outside of the MAI family or not designated as thinking or reasoning models will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Microsoft as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Microsoft (e.g., https://microsoft.ai/models), with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A “successor to MAI-Thinking-1” refers to any model explicitly designated by Microsoft as part of its MAI (Microsoft AI) model family and as a thinking or reasoning model, or presented as Microsoft’s next general-purpose reasoning model or widely regarded as the successor to MAI-Thinking-1.
Task-specialized models, cost-efficiency variants, or similar releases will not count unless they are explicitly designated as thinking or reasoning models or widely regarded as successors to MAI-Thinking-1.
Products outside of the MAI family or not designated as thinking or reasoning models will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Microsoft as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Microsoft (e.g., https://microsoft.ai/models), with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Rynek otwarty: Jul 11, 2026, 2:45 PM ET
Wolumen
$489Data zakończenia
Jan 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
Jul 11, 2026, 2:45 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Microsoft releases a successor to MAI-Thinking-1 that is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A “successor to MAI-Thinking-1” refers to any model explicitly designated by Microsoft as part of its MAI (Microsoft AI) model family and as a thinking or reasoning model, or presented as Microsoft’s next general-purpose reasoning model or widely regarded as the successor to MAI-Thinking-1.
Task-specialized models, cost-efficiency variants, or similar releases will not count unless they are explicitly designated as thinking or reasoning models or widely regarded as successors to MAI-Thinking-1.
Products outside of the MAI family or not designated as thinking or reasoning models will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Microsoft as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Microsoft (e.g., https://microsoft.ai/models), with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Microsoft's June 2, 2026 Build conference announcement of MAI-Thinking-1 as its first dedicated in-house reasoning model drove recent trader sentiment, marking a clear step toward independence from OpenAI partnerships. The sparse MoE architecture (35B active parameters out of roughly 1T total, 256K context) was trained from scratch on clean enterprise data without distillation, delivering 97% on AIME 2025, competitive SWE-Bench Pro scores near Claude Opus 4.6 levels, and stronger human preference ratings than Sonnet 4.6 in blind evaluations. Public preview availability via Microsoft Foundry in mid-August, alongside the broader seven-model MAI family spanning coding, image, and voice, reinforced momentum in competitive positioning against Anthropic and other labs. No major new thinking-model updates have surfaced since the September 3 MAI-Transcribe-2 release, though further Foundry integrations or efficiency tweaks remain plausible near-term catalysts.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Microsoft releases a successor to MAI-Thinking-1 that is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
A “successor to MAI-Thinking-1” refers to any model explicitly designated by Microsoft as part of its MAI (Microsoft AI) model family and as a thinking or reasoning model, or presented as Microsoft’s next general-purpose reasoning model or widely regarded as the successor to MAI-Thinking-1.
Task-specialized models, cost-efficiency variants, or similar releases will not count unless they are explicitly designated as thinking or reasoning models or widely regarded as successors to MAI-Thinking-1.
Products outside of the MAI family or not designated as thinking or reasoning models will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Microsoft as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Microsoft (e.g., https://microsoft.ai/models), with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
A “successor to MAI-Thinking-1” refers to any model explicitly designated by Microsoft as part of its MAI (Microsoft AI) model family and as a thinking or reasoning model, or presented as Microsoft’s next general-purpose reasoning model or widely regarded as the successor to MAI-Thinking-1.
Task-specialized models, cost-efficiency variants, or similar releases will not count unless they are explicitly designated as thinking or reasoning models or widely regarded as successors to MAI-Thinking-1.
Products outside of the MAI family or not designated as thinking or reasoning models will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Microsoft as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Microsoft (e.g., https://microsoft.ai/models), with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Wolumen
$489Data zakończenia
Jan 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
Jul 11, 2026, 2:45 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...Microsoft's June 2, 2026 Build conference announcement of MAI-Thinking-1 as its first dedicated in-house reasoning model drove recent trader sentiment, marking a clear step toward independence from OpenAI partnerships. The sparse MoE architecture (35B active parameters out of roughly 1T total, 256K context) was trained from scratch on clean enterprise data without distillation, delivering 97% on AIME 2025, competitive SWE-Bench Pro scores near Claude Opus 4.6 levels, and stronger human preference ratings than Sonnet 4.6 in blind evaluations. Public preview availability via Microsoft Foundry in mid-August, alongside the broader seven-model MAI family spanning coding, image, and voice, reinforced momentum in competitive positioning against Anthropic and other labs. No major new thinking-model updates have surfaced since the September 3 MAI-Transcribe-2 release, though further Foundry integrations or efficiency tweaks remain plausible near-term catalysts.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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