**Traders assign a 94.5% probability to no NATO Article 5 invocation before 2027 because no armed attack on alliance territory has occurred or appears imminent, despite ongoing hybrid pressures from Russia and alliance frictions.** NATO has invoked Article 5 only once historically (after 9/11), and recent incidents—such as Russian drone incursions into Polish airspace in 2025—prompted Article 4 consultations and operations like Eastern Sentry and Baltic Sentry rather than collective defense activation. U.S. intelligence assessments indicate Russia could attempt limited probes or hybrid actions (cyber, sabotage, or small incursions) between late 2026 and 2029 to test resolve, but full-scale escalation risks remain low in the near term while Moscow remains engaged in Ukraine. The July 2026 Ankara Summit produced a reaffirmation of the “ironclad” collective defense commitment, even amid U.S. pressure on spending and occasional rhetorical challenges. European allies have accelerated defense planning and spending increases as contingencies, yet these steps reflect deterrence rather than active conflict. Structural factors, including Russia’s current force posture and NATO’s enhanced eastern flank presence, further reduce the odds of a qualifying armed attack within the short resolution window. Any shift would require a verifiable conventional strike on a member state that allies unanimously treat as triggering the clause, an outcome markets view as unlikely before year-end 2026.