Recent Bank of Japan policy normalization, including the September 18 rate hike to 1.25%, combined with core inflation near or above target and fiscal expansion risks from consumption tax cuts, has lifted the 10-year JGB yield to approximately 2.99% as of September 18. These developments anchor trader sentiment toward the 3.0%+ bracket at 67.3% implied probability, reflecting expectations of further gradual tightening and sustained upward pressure on long-term rates through year-end. Market pricing aligns with analyst forecasts around 3% by December 2026, though incoming CPI prints and any BoJ communications on terminal rates could still influence the final level amid global yield volatility.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano3.0%+ 67.3%
2.8-3.0% 18.8%
2.4-2.6% 6.8%
2.6-2.8% 3.1%
$29,873 Wol.
$29,873 Wol.
Dec 30, 2026
<2.0%
1%
2.0-2.2%
2%
2.2-2.4%
<1%
2.4-2.6%
7%
2.6-2.8%
3%
2.8-3.0%
19%
3.0%+
67%
3.0%+ 67.3%
2.8-3.0% 18.8%
2.4-2.6% 6.8%
2.6-2.8% 3.1%
$29,873 Wol.
$29,873 Wol.
Dec 30, 2026
<2.0%
$1,370 Wol.
1%
2.0-2.2%
$1,701 Wol.
2%
2.2-2.4%
$1,263 Wol.
<1%
2.4-2.6%
$2,562 Wol.
7%
2.6-2.8%
$2,556 Wol.
3%
2.8-3.0%
$8,716 Wol.
19%
3.0%+
$11,705 Wol.
67%
This market will resolve according to the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield on the last reported day of 2026, as reported by the Japanese Ministry of Finance.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.Recent Bank of Japan policy normalization, including the September 18 rate hike to 1.25%, combined with core inflation near or above target and fiscal expansion risks from consumption tax cuts, has lifted the 10-year JGB yield to approximately 2.99% as of September 18. These developments anchor trader sentiment toward the 3.0%+ bracket at 67.3% implied probability, reflecting expectations of further gradual tightening and sustained upward pressure on long-term rates through year-end. Market pricing aligns with analyst forecasts around 3% by December 2026, though incoming CPI prints and any BoJ communications on terminal rates could still influence the final level amid global yield volatility.
This market will resolve according to the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield on the last reported day of 2026, as reported by the Japanese Ministry of Finance.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.
Rynek otwarty: Jun 10, 2026, 4:35 PM ET
Wolumen
$29,873Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jun 10, 2026, 4:35 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield on the last reported day of 2026, as reported by the Japanese Ministry of Finance.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.Recent Bank of Japan policy normalization, including the September 18 rate hike to 1.25%, combined with core inflation near or above target and fiscal expansion risks from consumption tax cuts, has lifted the 10-year JGB yield to approximately 2.99% as of September 18. These developments anchor trader sentiment toward the 3.0%+ bracket at 67.3% implied probability, reflecting expectations of further gradual tightening and sustained upward pressure on long-term rates through year-end. Market pricing aligns with analyst forecasts around 3% by December 2026, though incoming CPI prints and any BoJ communications on terminal rates could still influence the final level amid global yield volatility.
This market will resolve according to the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield on the last reported day of 2026, as reported by the Japanese Ministry of Finance.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm). The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date. The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026. If the Ministry of Finance has not published any 2027 yield data for the specified date by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve using the most recent 2026 yield published as of that date.
Wolumen
$29,873Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jun 10, 2026, 4:35 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Recent Bank of Japan policy normalization, including the September 18 rate hike to 1.25%, combined with core inflation near or above target and fiscal expansion risks from consumption tax cuts, has lifted the 10-year JGB yield to approximately 2.99% as of September 18. These developments anchor trader sentiment toward the 3.0%+ bracket at 67.3% implied probability, reflecting expectations of further gradual tightening and sustained upward pressure on long-term rates through year-end. Market pricing aligns with analyst forecasts around 3% by December 2026, though incoming CPI prints and any BoJ communications on terminal rates could still influence the final level amid global yield volatility.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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