Recent weak U.S. employment data, including September nonfarm payrolls of just 29,000 and a 4.2% unemployment rate, have eased near-term rate-hike expectations and prompted the 10-year Treasury yield to retreat from its early-October peak above 5.34%—the highest since 2002—to around 5.25% as of October 2. Persistent inflation pressures from energy prices, heavy Treasury supply amid fiscal deficits, and corporate borrowing tied to AI investments continue to support elevated real yields and term premiums, while the Fed’s recent hawkish shift and data-dependent stance keep the policy path uncertain. Traders are monitoring upcoming CPI releases, labor market indicators, and any FOMC communications for signals that could push yields lower or sustain the current range.