Traders have converged on 21°C as the implied highest temperature for Beijing on October 4, 2026, at 98% probability, reflecting consistent forecasts from official sources and numerical models. Clear skies under northerly flow at 3–4 levels with gusts to 7 have promoted mixing and limited daytime warming, aligning the expected peak with the lower end of the October climatological range near 22.5°C. Multiple runs, including those referenced by the Beijing Meteorological Observatory, project afternoon maxima of 20–21°C across urban plains, with only minor variations by station. This strong model agreement and real-time observational trends underpin the market positioning. An unexpected shift in wind patterns or delayed clearing could allow a brief spike toward 22–23°C, though current guidance shows low likelihood before evening cooling sets in.