Latest numerical weather prediction runs, including GFS guidance, position Madrid’s October 4 maximum near 22 °C under partly cloudy skies with scattered thunderstorms that will limit surface heating. Persistent northeasterly flow and high humidity favor this range rather than stronger warming, aligning with early-October climatological norms of 20–23 °C. Model consensus shows limited spread, though the precise peak hinges on storm timing and any clearing that allows brief additional insolation. Official AEMET station observations at the day’s close will resolve the market, with any last-minute model shifts overnight likely to refine implied probabilities around the 21–23 °C outcomes.