Official National Weather Service observations from Austin stations, including Camp Mabry and Bergstrom International Airport, recorded a daily maximum of 102–103°F on September 15, 2026, under clear to partly cloudy skies with light southeast winds and elevated humidity. This exceeded the normal high near 92°F and set a new record, directly supporting the market's near-certain outcome for that bin. Persistent regional heat, driven by a strong subtropical ridge, produced similar readings across central Texas amid ongoing heat advisories. Minor challenges could arise only from rare post-event data revisions or station-specific measurement differences, though multi-station confirmation makes such shifts improbable.