The Socialist Party's July 2026 membership vote, favoring a closed internal primary over participation in the broader United Left process, has driven the near-certain outcome of cancellation at 88 percent trader consensus. Key organizers including the PS, La France Insoumise, and Place Publique have withdrawn or declined involvement since the November 2025 launch, leaving only smaller groups such as Les Écologistes, Debout!, and the Breton Democratic Union. Candidate withdrawals by figures including Clémentine Autain and Benjamin Lucas-Lundy have further stalled the October 11 schedule. Remaining declared contenders such as Marine Tondelier and François Ruffin hold minimal implied probabilities under current resolution criteria tied to official announcements or insufficient participation. No major reversals have occurred in the past month.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoCanceled 88.1%
Marine Tondelier 1.3%
François Ruffin 1.1%
Clémentine Autain <1%
$226,103 Wol.
$226,103 Wol.
Oct 10, 2026
Canceled
88%
Marine Tondelier
1%
François Ruffin
1%
Clémentine Autain
1%
Benjamin Lucas-Lundy
<1%
Lydie Massard
<1%
Canceled 88.1%
Marine Tondelier 1.3%
François Ruffin 1.1%
Clémentine Autain <1%
$226,103 Wol.
$226,103 Wol.
Oct 10, 2026
Canceled
$90,390 Wol.
88%
Marine Tondelier
$49,788 Wol.
1%
François Ruffin
$31,112 Wol.
1%
Clémentine Autain
$7,369 Wol.
1%
Benjamin Lucas-Lundy
$4,216 Wol.
<1%
Lydie Massard
$43,228 Wol.
<1%
The 2026 United Left primary is currently scheduled to be held on October 11, 2026, to select a joint candidate for the 2027 French presidential election among participating left-wing parties and movements.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination as a joint candidate of the participating left-wing parties and movements as a result of this election.
This market will resolve to “Canceled” if the organizers of the 2026 United Left primary officially announce that it will not take place, or if at least three of L’Après, Les Écologistes, Debout!, and Génération.s officially announce that they will not participate. A postponement of the scheduled date will not qualify.
If no qualifying nominee is announced by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on official announcements from the primary organizers or participating parties.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.The Socialist Party's July 2026 membership vote, favoring a closed internal primary over participation in the broader United Left process, has driven the near-certain outcome of cancellation at 88 percent trader consensus. Key organizers including the PS, La France Insoumise, and Place Publique have withdrawn or declined involvement since the November 2025 launch, leaving only smaller groups such as Les Écologistes, Debout!, and the Breton Democratic Union. Candidate withdrawals by figures including Clémentine Autain and Benjamin Lucas-Lundy have further stalled the October 11 schedule. Remaining declared contenders such as Marine Tondelier and François Ruffin hold minimal implied probabilities under current resolution criteria tied to official announcements or insufficient participation. No major reversals have occurred in the past month.
The 2026 United Left primary is currently scheduled to be held on October 11, 2026, to select a joint candidate for the 2027 French presidential election among participating left-wing parties and movements.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination as a joint candidate of the participating left-wing parties and movements as a result of this election.
This market will resolve to “Canceled” if the organizers of the 2026 United Left primary officially announce that it will not take place, or if at least three of L’Après, Les Écologistes, Debout!, and Génération.s officially announce that they will not participate. A postponement of the scheduled date will not qualify.
If no qualifying nominee is announced by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on official announcements from the primary organizers or participating parties.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination as a joint candidate of the participating left-wing parties and movements as a result of this election.
This market will resolve to “Canceled” if the organizers of the 2026 United Left primary officially announce that it will not take place, or if at least three of L’Après, Les Écologistes, Debout!, and Génération.s officially announce that they will not participate. A postponement of the scheduled date will not qualify.
If no qualifying nominee is announced by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on official announcements from the primary organizers or participating parties.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Rynek otwarty: May 5, 2026, 7:44 PM ET
Wolumen
$226,103Data zakończenia
Oct 11, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 5, 2026, 7:44 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 United Left primary is currently scheduled to be held on October 11, 2026, to select a joint candidate for the 2027 French presidential election among participating left-wing parties and movements.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination as a joint candidate of the participating left-wing parties and movements as a result of this election.
This market will resolve to “Canceled” if the organizers of the 2026 United Left primary officially announce that it will not take place, or if at least three of L’Après, Les Écologistes, Debout!, and Génération.s officially announce that they will not participate. A postponement of the scheduled date will not qualify.
If no qualifying nominee is announced by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on official announcements from the primary organizers or participating parties.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.The Socialist Party's July 2026 membership vote, favoring a closed internal primary over participation in the broader United Left process, has driven the near-certain outcome of cancellation at 88 percent trader consensus. Key organizers including the PS, La France Insoumise, and Place Publique have withdrawn or declined involvement since the November 2025 launch, leaving only smaller groups such as Les Écologistes, Debout!, and the Breton Democratic Union. Candidate withdrawals by figures including Clémentine Autain and Benjamin Lucas-Lundy have further stalled the October 11 schedule. Remaining declared contenders such as Marine Tondelier and François Ruffin hold minimal implied probabilities under current resolution criteria tied to official announcements or insufficient participation. No major reversals have occurred in the past month.
The 2026 United Left primary is currently scheduled to be held on October 11, 2026, to select a joint candidate for the 2027 French presidential election among participating left-wing parties and movements.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination as a joint candidate of the participating left-wing parties and movements as a result of this election.
This market will resolve to “Canceled” if the organizers of the 2026 United Left primary officially announce that it will not take place, or if at least three of L’Après, Les Écologistes, Debout!, and Génération.s officially announce that they will not participate. A postponement of the scheduled date will not qualify.
If no qualifying nominee is announced by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on official announcements from the primary organizers or participating parties.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination as a joint candidate of the participating left-wing parties and movements as a result of this election.
This market will resolve to “Canceled” if the organizers of the 2026 United Left primary officially announce that it will not take place, or if at least three of L’Après, Les Écologistes, Debout!, and Génération.s officially announce that they will not participate. A postponement of the scheduled date will not qualify.
If no qualifying nominee is announced by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on official announcements from the primary organizers or participating parties.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Wolumen
$226,103Data zakończenia
Oct 11, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 5, 2026, 7:44 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...The Socialist Party's July 2026 membership vote, favoring a closed internal primary over participation in the broader United Left process, has driven the near-certain outcome of cancellation at 88 percent trader consensus. Key organizers including the PS, La France Insoumise, and Place Publique have withdrawn or declined involvement since the November 2025 launch, leaving only smaller groups such as Les Écologistes, Debout!, and the Breton Democratic Union. Candidate withdrawals by figures including Clémentine Autain and Benjamin Lucas-Lundy have further stalled the October 11 schedule. Remaining declared contenders such as Marine Tondelier and François Ruffin hold minimal implied probabilities under current resolution criteria tied to official announcements or insufficient participation. No major reversals have occurred in the past month.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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