Pia Dandiya holds a 74.5% implied probability in the FL-22 House race as traders weigh an open seat in a redrawn district that shifted Republican on presidential voting but rates as a toss-up among forecasters. Recent polling shows the candidates essentially tied near 47%, with Dandiya edging some surveys after strong third-quarter fundraising from small donors and a late-October appearance by Pete Buttigieg. Casey Askar secured the Republican nomination in a crowded August primary and has relied heavily on self-funding, though outside spending has intensified on both sides ahead of the November 3 election. The district’s mix of Collier, Hendry, and western Palm Beach and Broward counties, combined with high turnout expectations in this competitive environment, underpins the current market positioning.