Michigan stands out as Democrats’ strongest tossup Senate opportunity because it is an open seat in a closely divided battleground state where the party must defend its position to have any realistic path to a majority. Recent polling shows Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers separated by only a few points, consistent with the race’s toss-up ratings from multiple forecasters. The August Democratic primary narrowed the contest after El-Sayed prevailed, shifting some assessments from lean Democratic to pure toss-up. In contrast, Maine’s contest against incumbent Susan Collins features a vulnerable Republican in a state that leaned Democratic in the prior presidential election, while Ohio offers a pickup chance for Sherrod Brown against an appointed Republican. Texas, Alaska, and Iowa remain more challenging Republican-held seats where Democratic gains would require larger swings. Traders price Michigan highest because its fundamentals align most closely with current polling averages and the narrow margins needed for Senate control.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoMichigan 56%
Maine 14%
Ohio 12.6%
Texas 8%
NOWE
NOWE
Nov 3, 2026
Michigan
56%
Maine
14%
Ohio
13%
Texas
8%
Alaska
6%
Iowa
4%
Michigan 56%
Maine 14%
Ohio 12.6%
Texas 8%
NOWE
NOWE
Nov 3, 2026
Michigan
$2,811 Wol.
56%
Maine
$226 Wol.
14%
Ohio
$371 Wol.
13%
Texas
$134 Wol.
8%
Alaska
$236 Wol.
6%
Iowa
$129 Wol.
4%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Democratic Senate candidate earns the highest vote share percentage in the midterm election.
Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Democrat, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Democrats, this market will resolve in favor of the Democrat with the higher vote share.
If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order.
In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Michigan stands out as Democrats’ strongest tossup Senate opportunity because it is an open seat in a closely divided battleground state where the party must defend its position to have any realistic path to a majority. Recent polling shows Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers separated by only a few points, consistent with the race’s toss-up ratings from multiple forecasters. The August Democratic primary narrowed the contest after El-Sayed prevailed, shifting some assessments from lean Democratic to pure toss-up. In contrast, Maine’s contest against incumbent Susan Collins features a vulnerable Republican in a state that leaned Democratic in the prior presidential election, while Ohio offers a pickup chance for Sherrod Brown against an appointed Republican. Texas, Alaska, and Iowa remain more challenging Republican-held seats where Democratic gains would require larger swings. Traders price Michigan highest because its fundamentals align most closely with current polling averages and the narrow margins needed for Senate control.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Democratic Senate candidate earns the highest vote share percentage in the midterm election.
Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Democrat, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Democrats, this market will resolve in favor of the Democrat with the higher vote share.
If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order.
In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Democratic Senate candidate earns the highest vote share percentage in the midterm election.
Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Democrat, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Democrats, this market will resolve in favor of the Democrat with the higher vote share.
If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order.
In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rynek otwarty: Sep 2, 2026, 1:44 PM ET
Wolumen
$3,907Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 2, 2026, 1:44 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Democratic Senate candidate earns the highest vote share percentage in the midterm election.
Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Democrat, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Democrats, this market will resolve in favor of the Democrat with the higher vote share.
If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order.
In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Michigan stands out as Democrats’ strongest tossup Senate opportunity because it is an open seat in a closely divided battleground state where the party must defend its position to have any realistic path to a majority. Recent polling shows Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers separated by only a few points, consistent with the race’s toss-up ratings from multiple forecasters. The August Democratic primary narrowed the contest after El-Sayed prevailed, shifting some assessments from lean Democratic to pure toss-up. In contrast, Maine’s contest against incumbent Susan Collins features a vulnerable Republican in a state that leaned Democratic in the prior presidential election, while Ohio offers a pickup chance for Sherrod Brown against an appointed Republican. Texas, Alaska, and Iowa remain more challenging Republican-held seats where Democratic gains would require larger swings. Traders price Michigan highest because its fundamentals align most closely with current polling averages and the narrow margins needed for Senate control.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Democratic Senate candidate earns the highest vote share percentage in the midterm election.
Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Democrat, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Democrats, this market will resolve in favor of the Democrat with the higher vote share.
If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order.
In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Democratic Senate candidate earns the highest vote share percentage in the midterm election.
Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Democrat, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Democrats, this market will resolve in favor of the Democrat with the higher vote share.
If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order.
In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Wolumen
$3,907Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Sep 2, 2026, 1:44 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Michigan stands out as Democrats’ strongest tossup Senate opportunity because it is an open seat in a closely divided battleground state where the party must defend its position to have any realistic path to a majority. Recent polling shows Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed and Republican Mike Rogers separated by only a few points, consistent with the race’s toss-up ratings from multiple forecasters. The August Democratic primary narrowed the contest after El-Sayed prevailed, shifting some assessments from lean Democratic to pure toss-up. In contrast, Maine’s contest against incumbent Susan Collins features a vulnerable Republican in a state that leaned Democratic in the prior presidential election, while Ohio offers a pickup chance for Sherrod Brown against an appointed Republican. Texas, Alaska, and Iowa remain more challenging Republican-held seats where Democratic gains would require larger swings. Traders price Michigan highest because its fundamentals align most closely with current polling averages and the narrow margins needed for Senate control.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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