Recent polling averages show several 2026 Senate contests clustered within a few points, with Texas, Ohio, and Alaska posting the narrowest margins near or under 2 points as of early September. These races feature open seats or vulnerable incumbents in states where national generic ballot trends and candidate recruitment have narrowed historical gaps. Michigan and Maine also register tight surveys, reflecting Democratic competitiveness in open or Republican-held battlegrounds amid a modest national environment favoring that party. Forecasts from multiple models rate five to six seats as toss-ups or leans, increasing the chance some finish within 1 percent on November 3. Late-campaign developments such as debates, turnout efforts, or economic data could still shift final margins in these states.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoNOWE
Nov 3, 2026
Ohio (Special)
53%
Maine
22%
Texas
19%
Michigan
17%
Alaska
17%
New Hampshire
16%
Minnesota
10%
Georgia
10%
North Carolina
7%
New Mexico
4%
Colorado
4%
Montana
3%
Virginia
2%
Iowa
38%
Nebraska
49%
Florida (Special)
46%
$2,912 Wol.
Ohio (Special)
$84 Wol.
53%
Maine
$18 Wol.
22%
Texas
$52 Wol.
19%
Michigan
$177 Wol.
17%
Alaska
$208 Wol.
17%
New Hampshire
$269 Wol.
16%
Minnesota
$109 Wol.
10%
Georgia
$0 Wol.
10%
North Carolina
$189 Wol.
7%
New Mexico
$274 Wol.
4%
Colorado
$945 Wol.
4%
Montana
$154 Wol.
3%
Virginia
$157 Wol.
2%
Iowa
$100 Wol.
38%
Nebraska
$106 Wol.
49%
Florida (Special)
$70 Wol.
46%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 1% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polling averages show several 2026 Senate contests clustered within a few points, with Texas, Ohio, and Alaska posting the narrowest margins near or under 2 points as of early September. These races feature open seats or vulnerable incumbents in states where national generic ballot trends and candidate recruitment have narrowed historical gaps. Michigan and Maine also register tight surveys, reflecting Democratic competitiveness in open or Republican-held battlegrounds amid a modest national environment favoring that party. Forecasts from multiple models rate five to six seats as toss-ups or leans, increasing the chance some finish within 1 percent on November 3. Late-campaign developments such as debates, turnout efforts, or economic data could still shift final margins in these states.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 1% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 1% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rynek otwarty: Aug 21, 2026, 4:06 PM ET
Wolumen
$2,912Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 21, 2026, 4:06 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 1% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polling averages show several 2026 Senate contests clustered within a few points, with Texas, Ohio, and Alaska posting the narrowest margins near or under 2 points as of early September. These races feature open seats or vulnerable incumbents in states where national generic ballot trends and candidate recruitment have narrowed historical gaps. Michigan and Maine also register tight surveys, reflecting Democratic competitiveness in open or Republican-held battlegrounds amid a modest national environment favoring that party. Forecasts from multiple models rate five to six seats as toss-ups or leans, increasing the chance some finish within 1 percent on November 3. Late-campaign developments such as debates, turnout efforts, or economic data could still shift final margins in these states.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 1% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 1% or less. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant margin of victory will be that of the round in which the winner is determined.
The resolution source for this market will be the state election authority of the specified state, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Wolumen
$2,912Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 21, 2026, 4:06 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...Recent polling averages show several 2026 Senate contests clustered within a few points, with Texas, Ohio, and Alaska posting the narrowest margins near or under 2 points as of early September. These races feature open seats or vulnerable incumbents in states where national generic ballot trends and candidate recruitment have narrowed historical gaps. Michigan and Maine also register tight surveys, reflecting Democratic competitiveness in open or Republican-held battlegrounds amid a modest national environment favoring that party. Forecasts from multiple models rate five to six seats as toss-ups or leans, increasing the chance some finish within 1 percent on November 3. Late-campaign developments such as debates, turnout efforts, or economic data could still shift final margins in these states.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Często zadawane pytania