China’s pattern of infrequent public long-range ballistic missile tests underpins the current trader consensus, with only a handful of acknowledged intercontinental or submarine-launched events over decades. The July 6, 2026, submarine-launched ballistic missile test into the Pacific represented one such rare occurrence, described by Beijing as routine annual training with prior notifications to select governments. No subsequent public launches of qualifying systems have been reported through mid-September 2026, and recent activity has centered on space rocket deployments and shorter-range exercises. Absent new diplomatic tensions, military exercises, or official announcements signaling additional tests before year-end, market pricing reflects expectations that China will not conduct another publicly confirmed ballistic missile launch meeting the resolution criteria by December 31.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoChina ballistic missile launch by December 31?
China ballistic missile launch by December 31?
27% szansa
$11,959 Wol.
$11,959 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
27% szansa
$11,959 Wol.
$11,959 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China launches a ballistic missile between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.China’s pattern of infrequent public long-range ballistic missile tests underpins the current trader consensus, with only a handful of acknowledged intercontinental or submarine-launched events over decades. The July 6, 2026, submarine-launched ballistic missile test into the Pacific represented one such rare occurrence, described by Beijing as routine annual training with prior notifications to select governments. No subsequent public launches of qualifying systems have been reported through mid-September 2026, and recent activity has centered on space rocket deployments and shorter-range exercises. Absent new diplomatic tensions, military exercises, or official announcements signaling additional tests before year-end, market pricing reflects expectations that China will not conduct another publicly confirmed ballistic missile launch meeting the resolution criteria by December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China launches a ballistic missile between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
Rynek otwarty: Jul 7, 2026, 9:14 PM ET
Wolumen
$11,959Data zakończenia
Jan 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
Jul 7, 2026, 9:14 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China launches a ballistic missile between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.China’s pattern of infrequent public long-range ballistic missile tests underpins the current trader consensus, with only a handful of acknowledged intercontinental or submarine-launched events over decades. The July 6, 2026, submarine-launched ballistic missile test into the Pacific represented one such rare occurrence, described by Beijing as routine annual training with prior notifications to select governments. No subsequent public launches of qualifying systems have been reported through mid-September 2026, and recent activity has centered on space rocket deployments and shorter-range exercises. Absent new diplomatic tensions, military exercises, or official announcements signaling additional tests before year-end, market pricing reflects expectations that China will not conduct another publicly confirmed ballistic missile launch meeting the resolution criteria by December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China launches a ballistic missile between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
Only launches of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and ballistic anti-ship missiles, will qualify toward a “Yes” resolution.
Launches of other systems such as cruise missiles, SAMs, MLRS/rocket artillery, torpedoes, etc., will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.
The market resolution will be based on publicly available information from reliable sources such as official government statements, reports from international monitoring bodies like the United Nations, or reports from reputable international media.
Wolumen
$11,959Data zakończenia
Jan 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
Jul 7, 2026, 9:14 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...China’s pattern of infrequent public long-range ballistic missile tests underpins the current trader consensus, with only a handful of acknowledged intercontinental or submarine-launched events over decades. The July 6, 2026, submarine-launched ballistic missile test into the Pacific represented one such rare occurrence, described by Beijing as routine annual training with prior notifications to select governments. No subsequent public launches of qualifying systems have been reported through mid-September 2026, and recent activity has centered on space rocket deployments and shorter-range exercises. Absent new diplomatic tensions, military exercises, or official announcements signaling additional tests before year-end, market pricing reflects expectations that China will not conduct another publicly confirmed ballistic missile launch meeting the resolution criteria by December 31.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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