Recent polling shows a tight five-party contest for the September 20 Berlin state election, with Linke, CDU, AfD, and Grüne clustered between roughly 15% and 22% while SPD trails. This narrow spread among the top contenders keeps fourth place fluid and drives the market's emphasis on Grüne as the leading implied probability. Recent leadership shifts for CDU, investigations involving the SPD candidate, and AfD gains amid the nationwide firewall have added volatility without yet producing clear separation in the middle of the field. Traders appear to weigh Grüne's steadier mid-pack positioning against the risk that any of the frontrunners could slip, while smaller parties like BSW and FDP remain well below the threshold. Upcoming final campaign events and last-minute turnout shifts could still reorder the lower ranks before election day.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoGrüne 49%
AfD 22%
CDU 16.6%
SPD 10%
$12,534 Wol.
$12,534 Wol.
Sep 20, 2026
Grüne
49%
AfD
22%
CDU
17%
SPD
10%
Linke
7%
BSW
1%
FDP
1%
FW
1%
Grüne 49%
AfD 22%
CDU 16.6%
SPD 10%
$12,534 Wol.
$12,534 Wol.
Sep 20, 2026
Grüne
$6,555 Wol.
49%
AfD
$4,140 Wol.
22%
CDU
$182 Wol.
17%
SPD
$344 Wol.
10%
Linke
$738 Wol.
7%
BSW
$212 Wol.
1%
FDP
$154 Wol.
1%
FW
$209 Wol.
1%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the fourth-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the fourth finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Recent polling shows a tight five-party contest for the September 20 Berlin state election, with Linke, CDU, AfD, and Grüne clustered between roughly 15% and 22% while SPD trails. This narrow spread among the top contenders keeps fourth place fluid and drives the market's emphasis on Grüne as the leading implied probability. Recent leadership shifts for CDU, investigations involving the SPD candidate, and AfD gains amid the nationwide firewall have added volatility without yet producing clear separation in the middle of the field. Traders appear to weigh Grüne's steadier mid-pack positioning against the risk that any of the frontrunners could slip, while smaller parties like BSW and FDP remain well below the threshold. Upcoming final campaign events and last-minute turnout shifts could still reorder the lower ranks before election day.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the fourth-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the fourth finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the fourth-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the fourth finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Rynek otwarty: Aug 20, 2026, 2:14 PM ET
Wolumen
$12,534Data zakończenia
Sep 20, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 20, 2026, 2:14 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the fourth-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the fourth finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Recent polling shows a tight five-party contest for the September 20 Berlin state election, with Linke, CDU, AfD, and Grüne clustered between roughly 15% and 22% while SPD trails. This narrow spread among the top contenders keeps fourth place fluid and drives the market's emphasis on Grüne as the leading implied probability. Recent leadership shifts for CDU, investigations involving the SPD candidate, and AfD gains amid the nationwide firewall have added volatility without yet producing clear separation in the middle of the field. Traders appear to weigh Grüne's steadier mid-pack positioning against the risk that any of the frontrunners could slip, while smaller parties like BSW and FDP remain well below the threshold. Upcoming final campaign events and last-minute turnout shifts could still reorder the lower ranks before election day.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the fourth-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the fourth finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the fourth-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the fourth finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Wolumen
$12,534Data zakończenia
Sep 20, 2026Rynek otwarty
Aug 20, 2026, 2:14 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling shows a tight five-party contest for the September 20 Berlin state election, with Linke, CDU, AfD, and Grüne clustered between roughly 15% and 22% while SPD trails. This narrow spread among the top contenders keeps fourth place fluid and drives the market's emphasis on Grüne as the leading implied probability. Recent leadership shifts for CDU, investigations involving the SPD candidate, and AfD gains amid the nationwide firewall have added volatility without yet producing clear separation in the middle of the field. Traders appear to weigh Grüne's steadier mid-pack positioning against the risk that any of the frontrunners could slip, while smaller parties like BSW and FDP remain well below the threshold. Upcoming final campaign events and last-minute turnout shifts could still reorder the lower ranks before election day.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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