Incumbent Republican Tom Cotton holds a dominant position in the 2026 Arkansas Senate race due to the state's strong Republican lean, his established record since 2015, and consistent polling leads of 7 to 16 points over Democratic challenger Hallie Shoffner. Both candidates secured their nominations comfortably in the March primaries, and forecasters rate the contest Solid Republican. Traders price Cotton at 94.2 percent in line with these fundamentals and Arkansas's voting patterns in recent cycles. Potential shifts could arise from late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or unusually strong national Democratic momentum, though such factors have rarely overcome structural advantages in this state. The November 3 general election remains months away.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoArkansas Senate Election Winner
Arkansas Senate Election Winner
$17,081 Wol.
$17,081 Wol.
Nov 2, 2026
Tom Cotton (R)
94%
Hallie Shoffner (D)
5%
$17,081 Wol.
$17,081 Wol.
Nov 2, 2026
Tom Cotton (R)
$12,595 Wol.
94%
Hallie Shoffner (D)
$4,486 Wol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Arkansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Tom Cotton holds a dominant position in the 2026 Arkansas Senate race due to the state's strong Republican lean, his established record since 2015, and consistent polling leads of 7 to 16 points over Democratic challenger Hallie Shoffner. Both candidates secured their nominations comfortably in the March primaries, and forecasters rate the contest Solid Republican. Traders price Cotton at 94.2 percent in line with these fundamentals and Arkansas's voting patterns in recent cycles. Potential shifts could arise from late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or unusually strong national Democratic momentum, though such factors have rarely overcome structural advantages in this state. The November 3 general election remains months away.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Arkansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Rynek otwarty: Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ET
Wolumen
$17,081Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Arkansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Tom Cotton holds a dominant position in the 2026 Arkansas Senate race due to the state's strong Republican lean, his established record since 2015, and consistent polling leads of 7 to 16 points over Democratic challenger Hallie Shoffner. Both candidates secured their nominations comfortably in the March primaries, and forecasters rate the contest Solid Republican. Traders price Cotton at 94.2 percent in line with these fundamentals and Arkansas's voting patterns in recent cycles. Potential shifts could arise from late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or unusually strong national Democratic momentum, though such factors have rarely overcome structural advantages in this state. The November 3 general election remains months away.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Arkansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Wolumen
$17,081Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Tom Cotton holds a dominant position in the 2026 Arkansas Senate race due to the state's strong Republican lean, his established record since 2015, and consistent polling leads of 7 to 16 points over Democratic challenger Hallie Shoffner. Both candidates secured their nominations comfortably in the March primaries, and forecasters rate the contest Solid Republican. Traders price Cotton at 94.2 percent in line with these fundamentals and Arkansas's voting patterns in recent cycles. Potential shifts could arise from late developments such as a major scandal, health event, or unusually strong national Democratic momentum, though such factors have rarely overcome structural advantages in this state. The November 3 general election remains months away.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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