The Trump administration has intensified pressure on Mexico for expanded anti-cartel cooperation, including a recent memo proposing U.S. security personnel accompany operations on Mexican soil and broader intelligence sharing ahead of the November 3 midterms. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum has repeatedly rejected such direct involvement, stating that foreign forces operating inside the country violate sovereignty while confirming openness to intelligence sharing and coordination at Mexico’s request. U.S. military actions remain focused on maritime strikes against suspected trafficking vessels in the Pacific and Caribbean, with no confirmed strikes or ground operations on Mexican territory. U.S. officials have noted risks of unilateral action damaging bilateral ties and triggering cartel retaliation. These sovereignty constraints and lack of Mexican consent keep trader-implied probabilities for a U.S. strike by year-end low.