The trader consensus assigning over 54% probability to no Trump Cabinet departures before 2027 reflects the administration's relative stability more than 18 months into the term, with no major scandals, confirmation battles, or policy fractures triggering exits in recent months. Individual names such as Pete Hegseth, Susie Wiles, and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. carry single-digit implied probabilities because public statements and reporting show no active pressure or disputes that would accelerate their departures ahead of the 2027 threshold. Broader factors including Senate confirmation patterns, historical cabinet tenure rates, and the absence of scheduled votes or investigations have kept specific resignation odds compressed, though any sudden diplomatic, legal, or legislative development could still shift positioning before the end of 2026.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日None before 2027 54.6%
Pete Hegseth 5.5%
Susie Wiles 5.3%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. 3.4%
$53,391 Vol.
$53,391 Vol.
2026/12/31
None before 2027
55%
Pete Hegseth
6%
Susie Wiles
5%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
3%
Doug Burgum
3%
Scott Bessent
3%
Kelly Loeffler
2%
Lee Zeldin
2%
John Ratcliffe
2%
Marco Rubio
2%
Brooke Rollins
2%
Sean Duffy
1%
Scott Turner
1%
J.D. Vance
1%
Mike Waltz
1%
Doug Collins
1%
Linda McMahon
1%
Russell T. Vought
1%
Howard Lutnick
1%
Chris Wright
<1%
Jamieson Greer
<1%
None before 2027 54.6%
Pete Hegseth 5.5%
Susie Wiles 5.3%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. 3.4%
$53,391 Vol.
$53,391 Vol.
2026/12/31
None before 2027
$13,401 Vol.
55%
Pete Hegseth
$1,272 Vol.
6%
Susie Wiles
$3,683 Vol.
5%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
$19,194 Vol.
3%
Doug Burgum
$1,114 Vol.
3%
Scott Bessent
$2,955 Vol.
3%
Kelly Loeffler
$947 Vol.
2%
Lee Zeldin
$762 Vol.
2%
John Ratcliffe
$676 Vol.
2%
Marco Rubio
$677 Vol.
2%
Brooke Rollins
$797 Vol.
2%
Sean Duffy
$806 Vol.
1%
Scott Turner
$477 Vol.
1%
J.D. Vance
$717 Vol.
1%
Mike Waltz
$886 Vol.
1%
Doug Collins
$780 Vol.
1%
Linda McMahon
$1,069 Vol.
1%
Russell T. Vought
$676 Vol.
1%
Howard Lutnick
$1,006 Vol.
1%
Chris Wright
$858 Vol.
<1%
Jamieson Greer
$638 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.The trader consensus assigning over 54% probability to no Trump Cabinet departures before 2027 reflects the administration's relative stability more than 18 months into the term, with no major scandals, confirmation battles, or policy fractures triggering exits in recent months. Individual names such as Pete Hegseth, Susie Wiles, and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. carry single-digit implied probabilities because public statements and reporting show no active pressure or disputes that would accelerate their departures ahead of the 2027 threshold. Broader factors including Senate confirmation patterns, historical cabinet tenure rates, and the absence of scheduled votes or investigations have kept specific resignation odds compressed, though any sudden diplomatic, legal, or legislative development could still shift positioning before the end of 2026.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
マーケット開始日： May 22, 2026, 2:38 PM ET
音量
$53,391終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
May 22, 2026, 2:38 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.The trader consensus assigning over 54% probability to no Trump Cabinet departures before 2027 reflects the administration's relative stability more than 18 months into the term, with no major scandals, confirmation battles, or policy fractures triggering exits in recent months. Individual names such as Pete Hegseth, Susie Wiles, and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. carry single-digit implied probabilities because public statements and reporting show no active pressure or disputes that would accelerate their departures ahead of the 2027 threshold. Broader factors including Senate confirmation patterns, historical cabinet tenure rates, and the absence of scheduled votes or investigations have kept specific resignation odds compressed, though any sudden diplomatic, legal, or legislative development could still shift positioning before the end of 2026.
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.
If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.
For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
音量
$53,391終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
May 22, 2026, 2:38 PM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...The trader consensus assigning over 54% probability to no Trump Cabinet departures before 2027 reflects the administration's relative stability more than 18 months into the term, with no major scandals, confirmation battles, or policy fractures triggering exits in recent months. Individual names such as Pete Hegseth, Susie Wiles, and Robert F. Kennedy Jr. carry single-digit implied probabilities because public statements and reporting show no active pressure or disputes that would accelerate their departures ahead of the 2027 threshold. Broader factors including Senate confirmation patterns, historical cabinet tenure rates, and the absence of scheduled votes or investigations have kept specific resignation odds compressed, though any sudden diplomatic, legal, or legislative development could still shift positioning before the end of 2026.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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