Recent U.S. envoy visits to Moscow and Kyiv produced agreement to resume trilateral talks but yielded no breakthrough on core disputes over territorial control, security guarantees, and Ukrainian neutrality. Russia continues to demand full withdrawal from remaining Donbas areas and limits on Ukrainian forces, positions that Kyiv rejects as unacceptable. Ongoing strikes, including recent missile barrages on the capital, alongside battlefield advances underscore the absence of de-escalation sufficient for a signed agreement. With only weeks until October 31, trader consensus at 95.7% on "No" aligns with the timeline and persistent gaps. Late diplomatic concessions or external pressure ahead of U.S. midterms could theoretically shift momentum, though historical patterns show such rapid resolutions remain rare.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
4% 確率
$10,649 Vol.
$10,649 Vol.
2026/10/31
はい
4% 確率
$10,649 Vol.
$10,649 Vol.
2026/10/31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Recent U.S. envoy visits to Moscow and Kyiv produced agreement to resume trilateral talks but yielded no breakthrough on core disputes over territorial control, security guarantees, and Ukrainian neutrality. Russia continues to demand full withdrawal from remaining Donbas areas and limits on Ukrainian forces, positions that Kyiv rejects as unacceptable. Ongoing strikes, including recent missile barrages on the capital, alongside battlefield advances underscore the absence of de-escalation sufficient for a signed agreement. With only weeks until October 31, trader consensus at 95.7% on "No" aligns with the timeline and persistent gaps. Late diplomatic concessions or external pressure ahead of U.S. midterms could theoretically shift momentum, though historical patterns show such rapid resolutions remain rare.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Aug 26, 2026, 5:43 PM ET
音量
$10,649終了日
2026/11/01マーケット開始日
Aug 26, 2026, 5:43 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Recent U.S. envoy visits to Moscow and Kyiv produced agreement to resume trilateral talks but yielded no breakthrough on core disputes over territorial control, security guarantees, and Ukrainian neutrality. Russia continues to demand full withdrawal from remaining Donbas areas and limits on Ukrainian forces, positions that Kyiv rejects as unacceptable. Ongoing strikes, including recent missile barrages on the capital, alongside battlefield advances underscore the absence of de-escalation sufficient for a signed agreement. With only weeks until October 31, trader consensus at 95.7% on "No" aligns with the timeline and persistent gaps. Late diplomatic concessions or external pressure ahead of U.S. midterms could theoretically shift momentum, though historical patterns show such rapid resolutions remain rare.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$10,649終了日
2026/11/01マーケット開始日
Aug 26, 2026, 5:43 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S. envoy visits to Moscow and Kyiv produced agreement to resume trilateral talks but yielded no breakthrough on core disputes over territorial control, security guarantees, and Ukrainian neutrality. Russia continues to demand full withdrawal from remaining Donbas areas and limits on Ukrainian forces, positions that Kyiv rejects as unacceptable. Ongoing strikes, including recent missile barrages on the capital, alongside battlefield advances underscore the absence of de-escalation sufficient for a signed agreement. With only weeks until October 31, trader consensus at 95.7% on "No" aligns with the timeline and persistent gaps. Late diplomatic concessions or external pressure ahead of U.S. midterms could theoretically shift momentum, though historical patterns show such rapid resolutions remain rare.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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