The high trader consensus on "No" stems from the 25th Amendment's Section 4 requirements, which demand Vice President JD Vance and a majority of Trump's cabinet declare presidential inability, followed by a two-thirds congressional vote to sustain removal—thresholds that remain politically unattainable with a loyal administration and Republican majorities. Recent Democratic calls for invocation tied to 2026 Iran-related statements and health reporting have produced no cabinet or vice-presidential support, consistent with historical patterns where the mechanism has never removed a president. Traders price in these institutional and partisan realities through early 2027. A sudden, documented incapacity severe enough to prompt Vance and cabinet action could still shift odds, though administration alignment makes such a development remote.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
3% 確率
$50,034 Vol.
$50,034 Vol.
2026/12/31
はい
3% 確率
$50,034 Vol.
$50,034 Vol.
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump is formally removed from the office of the President of the United States by means of the process outlined in Section 4 of the 25th Amendment to the US Constitution by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the Vice President becomes Acting President via the process outlined in Section 3 of the 25th Amendment, it will not effect the resolution of this market. Only Trump’s removal from office via the process outlined in Section 4 of the 25th Amendment will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
If Trump ceases to be POTUS before this market's expiration date for any other reason, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government.The high trader consensus on "No" stems from the 25th Amendment's Section 4 requirements, which demand Vice President JD Vance and a majority of Trump's cabinet declare presidential inability, followed by a two-thirds congressional vote to sustain removal—thresholds that remain politically unattainable with a loyal administration and Republican majorities. Recent Democratic calls for invocation tied to 2026 Iran-related statements and health reporting have produced no cabinet or vice-presidential support, consistent with historical patterns where the mechanism has never removed a president. Traders price in these institutional and partisan realities through early 2027. A sudden, documented incapacity severe enough to prompt Vance and cabinet action could still shift odds, though administration alignment makes such a development remote.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump is formally removed from the office of the President of the United States by means of the process outlined in Section 4 of the 25th Amendment to the US Constitution by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the Vice President becomes Acting President via the process outlined in Section 3 of the 25th Amendment, it will not effect the resolution of this market. Only Trump’s removal from office via the process outlined in Section 4 of the 25th Amendment will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
If Trump ceases to be POTUS before this market's expiration date for any other reason, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government.
If the Vice President becomes Acting President via the process outlined in Section 3 of the 25th Amendment, it will not effect the resolution of this market. Only Trump’s removal from office via the process outlined in Section 4 of the 25th Amendment will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
If Trump ceases to be POTUS before this market's expiration date for any other reason, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government.
マーケット開始日： Nov 5, 2025, 1:15 PM ET
音量
$50,034終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 1:15 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump is formally removed from the office of the President of the United States by means of the process outlined in Section 4 of the 25th Amendment to the US Constitution by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the Vice President becomes Acting President via the process outlined in Section 3 of the 25th Amendment, it will not effect the resolution of this market. Only Trump’s removal from office via the process outlined in Section 4 of the 25th Amendment will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
If Trump ceases to be POTUS before this market's expiration date for any other reason, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government.The high trader consensus on "No" stems from the 25th Amendment's Section 4 requirements, which demand Vice President JD Vance and a majority of Trump's cabinet declare presidential inability, followed by a two-thirds congressional vote to sustain removal—thresholds that remain politically unattainable with a loyal administration and Republican majorities. Recent Democratic calls for invocation tied to 2026 Iran-related statements and health reporting have produced no cabinet or vice-presidential support, consistent with historical patterns where the mechanism has never removed a president. Traders price in these institutional and partisan realities through early 2027. A sudden, documented incapacity severe enough to prompt Vance and cabinet action could still shift odds, though administration alignment makes such a development remote.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump is formally removed from the office of the President of the United States by means of the process outlined in Section 4 of the 25th Amendment to the US Constitution by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the Vice President becomes Acting President via the process outlined in Section 3 of the 25th Amendment, it will not effect the resolution of this market. Only Trump’s removal from office via the process outlined in Section 4 of the 25th Amendment will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
If Trump ceases to be POTUS before this market's expiration date for any other reason, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government.
If the Vice President becomes Acting President via the process outlined in Section 3 of the 25th Amendment, it will not effect the resolution of this market. Only Trump’s removal from office via the process outlined in Section 4 of the 25th Amendment will qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
If Trump ceases to be POTUS before this market's expiration date for any other reason, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government.
音量
$50,034終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Nov 5, 2025, 1:15 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...The high trader consensus on "No" stems from the 25th Amendment's Section 4 requirements, which demand Vice President JD Vance and a majority of Trump's cabinet declare presidential inability, followed by a two-thirds congressional vote to sustain removal—thresholds that remain politically unattainable with a loyal administration and Republican majorities. Recent Democratic calls for invocation tied to 2026 Iran-related statements and health reporting have produced no cabinet or vice-presidential support, consistent with historical patterns where the mechanism has never removed a president. Traders price in these institutional and partisan realities through early 2027. A sudden, documented incapacity severe enough to prompt Vance and cabinet action could still shift odds, though administration alignment makes such a development remote.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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