Genta Koja leads the Okinawa gubernatorial race with 67% implied probability on Polymarket ahead of the September 13 vote, while incumbent Denny Tamaki sits at 28% and minor candidates trail far behind. Recent polls show the two frontrunners nearly tied, with roughly 10% of voters undecided and economic concerns—employment, prices, and tourism—outweighing U.S. base issues for nearly half of respondents. Koja, backed by the Liberal Democratic Party, Japan Innovation Party, and other groups, emphasizes growth and supports the Henoko relocation plan. Tamaki draws support from opposition parties and continues to prioritize reducing the military footprint. Traders appear to weigh Koja’s broader coalition and the shift toward pocketbook priorities more heavily than survey margins in this final week.