Melanie Stansbury holds a commanding 93.5% implied probability in the NM-01 House race due to the district's consistent Democratic lean, her incumbency advantage, and strong fundraising edge over Republican nominee Didi Okpareke. The seat, centered on Albuquerque and surrounding areas, has delivered Democratic margins in recent cycles, and forecasters rate it Solid Democratic with no competitive polling shifts reported. Both candidates advanced unopposed in June primaries, leaving the general election dynamics stable heading into November. A late national Republican surge, significant scandal, or major turnout surprise could narrow the gap, though such developments remain low-probability factors in this environment.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$36,492 Vol.
$36,492 Vol.
2026/11/02
メラニー・スタンズベリー（民主党）
94%
ディディ・オクパレケ（共和党）
6%
$36,492 Vol.
$36,492 Vol.
2026/11/02
メラニー・スタンズベリー（民主党）
$18,977 Vol.
94%
ディディ・オクパレケ（共和党）
$17,515 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NM-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Melanie Stansbury holds a commanding 93.5% implied probability in the NM-01 House race due to the district's consistent Democratic lean, her incumbency advantage, and strong fundraising edge over Republican nominee Didi Okpareke. The seat, centered on Albuquerque and surrounding areas, has delivered Democratic margins in recent cycles, and forecasters rate it Solid Democratic with no competitive polling shifts reported. Both candidates advanced unopposed in June primaries, leaving the general election dynamics stable heading into November. A late national Republican surge, significant scandal, or major turnout surprise could narrow the gap, though such developments remain low-probability factors in this environment.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NM-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ET
音量
$36,492終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NM-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Melanie Stansbury holds a commanding 93.5% implied probability in the NM-01 House race due to the district's consistent Democratic lean, her incumbency advantage, and strong fundraising edge over Republican nominee Didi Okpareke. The seat, centered on Albuquerque and surrounding areas, has delivered Democratic margins in recent cycles, and forecasters rate it Solid Democratic with no competitive polling shifts reported. Both candidates advanced unopposed in June primaries, leaving the general election dynamics stable heading into November. A late national Republican surge, significant scandal, or major turnout surprise could narrow the gap, though such developments remain low-probability factors in this environment.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NM-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$36,492終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:10 AM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...Melanie Stansbury holds a commanding 93.5% implied probability in the NM-01 House race due to the district's consistent Democratic lean, her incumbency advantage, and strong fundraising edge over Republican nominee Didi Okpareke. The seat, centered on Albuquerque and surrounding areas, has delivered Democratic margins in recent cycles, and forecasters rate it Solid Democratic with no competitive polling shifts reported. Both candidates advanced unopposed in June primaries, leaving the general election dynamics stable heading into November. A late national Republican surge, significant scandal, or major turnout surprise could narrow the gap, though such developments remain low-probability factors in this environment.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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