Netanyahu’s explicit statements that he intends to remain Likud chairman and lead the opposition rather than exit politics, combined with his bloc’s steady polling position ahead of the October 27 Knesset election, underpin the near-certain trader consensus against him dropping out. Recent commemorations of the October 7 attacks have kept security failures central to the campaign, yet his coalition has shown resilience in seat projections around 54-55, and no major defections or health developments have emerged in the past month to prompt withdrawal. With the vote only weeks away, the structural barriers to a last-minute exit—party dynamics, legal proceedings, and the precedent of caretaker continuity—further reinforce the implied probability. Late surprises such as a sudden medical event or decisive new revelations could theoretically alter the calculation, though none are currently evident.