Morena holds a leading position in the Nayarit state congress election market due to its commanding performance in the 2024 vote, where the party and its allies secured the majority of the 18 single-member districts and a strong share of the 12 proportional representation seats in the 30-member unicameral legislature. The coalition of Morena, PT, and PVEM continues to benefit from high voter support in the state, reinforced by recent internal coordination efforts ahead of the 2027 elections, including the appointment of PVEM senator Jasmine Bugarín as state coordinator under gender parity rules. Polling averages show the alliance maintaining a wide lead over opposition groups such as PAN, PRI, and MC. PVEM’s lower standalone odds reflect its role within the governing coalition rather than as an independent contender, while smaller parties face structural barriers from the mixed-member system and historical vote patterns favoring the dominant bloc. No major developments in recent weeks have altered this positioning.