Dems hold a clear polling edge in Michigan’s open gubernatorial race, where Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson leads Republican John James by roughly six to eight points in recent surveys, supporting the elevated probability traders assign to a Democratic sweep. The Senate contest remains tighter, with Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed holding a narrow lead over Republican Mike Rogers in September polling averages around two points, consistent with the lower odds placed on a Republican Senate win. Both seats opened after term-limited Democratic incumbents opted not to run, and post-primary polling since August has shown limited movement. The combination market reflects these separate dynamics, with traders pricing in the greater Democratic advantage for governor while treating the Senate outcome as more competitive. Upcoming debates and final campaign spending could still shift margins before November.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日民主党圧勝 63%
知事は民主党勝利、上院は共和党勝利 19%
共和党が圧勝 7%
共和党が知事勝利、民主党が上院勝利 1.2%
$12,549 Vol.
$12,549 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党圧勝
63%
知事は民主党勝利、上院は共和党勝利
19%
共和党が圧勝
7%
共和党が知事勝利、民主党が上院勝利
1%
民主党圧勝 63%
知事は民主党勝利、上院は共和党勝利 19%
共和党が圧勝 7%
共和党が知事勝利、民主党が上院勝利 1.2%
$12,549 Vol.
$12,549 Vol.
2026/11/03
民主党圧勝
$5,455 Vol.
63%
知事は民主党勝利、上院は共和党勝利
$2,023 Vol.
19%
共和党が圧勝
$4,232 Vol.
7%
共和党が知事勝利、民主党が上院勝利
$839 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the outcome of both the Gubernatorial and United States Senate general elections in Michigan that are currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
A candidate will be considered to represent a party by their ballot-listed affiliation or if they are the nominee of that party. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
If the results of these elections are not conclusively known by March 31, 2027, or if an independent or third-party candidate wins one of these elections, this market will resolve to "Other".
For purposes of this market, a "sweep" is when a party wins both races.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called the relevant Senate and Gubernatorial elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Dems hold a clear polling edge in Michigan’s open gubernatorial race, where Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson leads Republican John James by roughly six to eight points in recent surveys, supporting the elevated probability traders assign to a Democratic sweep. The Senate contest remains tighter, with Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed holding a narrow lead over Republican Mike Rogers in September polling averages around two points, consistent with the lower odds placed on a Republican Senate win. Both seats opened after term-limited Democratic incumbents opted not to run, and post-primary polling since August has shown limited movement. The combination market reflects these separate dynamics, with traders pricing in the greater Democratic advantage for governor while treating the Senate outcome as more competitive. Upcoming debates and final campaign spending could still shift margins before November.
This market will resolve according to the outcome of both the Gubernatorial and United States Senate general elections in Michigan that are currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
A candidate will be considered to represent a party by their ballot-listed affiliation or if they are the nominee of that party. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
If the results of these elections are not conclusively known by March 31, 2027, or if an independent or third-party candidate wins one of these elections, this market will resolve to "Other".
For purposes of this market, a "sweep" is when a party wins both races.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called the relevant Senate and Gubernatorial elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate will be considered to represent a party by their ballot-listed affiliation or if they are the nominee of that party. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
If the results of these elections are not conclusively known by March 31, 2027, or if an independent or third-party candidate wins one of these elections, this market will resolve to "Other".
For purposes of this market, a "sweep" is when a party wins both races.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called the relevant Senate and Gubernatorial elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
マーケット開始日： Aug 11, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
音量
$12,549終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Aug 11, 2026, 11:08 AM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the outcome of both the Gubernatorial and United States Senate general elections in Michigan that are currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
A candidate will be considered to represent a party by their ballot-listed affiliation or if they are the nominee of that party. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
If the results of these elections are not conclusively known by March 31, 2027, or if an independent or third-party candidate wins one of these elections, this market will resolve to "Other".
For purposes of this market, a "sweep" is when a party wins both races.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called the relevant Senate and Gubernatorial elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
Dems hold a clear polling edge in Michigan’s open gubernatorial race, where Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson leads Republican John James by roughly six to eight points in recent surveys, supporting the elevated probability traders assign to a Democratic sweep. The Senate contest remains tighter, with Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed holding a narrow lead over Republican Mike Rogers in September polling averages around two points, consistent with the lower odds placed on a Republican Senate win. Both seats opened after term-limited Democratic incumbents opted not to run, and post-primary polling since August has shown limited movement. The combination market reflects these separate dynamics, with traders pricing in the greater Democratic advantage for governor while treating the Senate outcome as more competitive. Upcoming debates and final campaign spending could still shift margins before November.
This market will resolve according to the outcome of both the Gubernatorial and United States Senate general elections in Michigan that are currently scheduled for November 3, 2026.
A candidate will be considered to represent a party by their ballot-listed affiliation or if they are the nominee of that party. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
If the results of these elections are not conclusively known by March 31, 2027, or if an independent or third-party candidate wins one of these elections, this market will resolve to "Other".
For purposes of this market, a "sweep" is when a party wins both races.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called the relevant Senate and Gubernatorial elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate will be considered to represent a party by their ballot-listed affiliation or if they are the nominee of that party. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
If the results of these elections are not conclusively known by March 31, 2027, or if an independent or third-party candidate wins one of these elections, this market will resolve to "Other".
For purposes of this market, a "sweep" is when a party wins both races.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called the relevant Senate and Gubernatorial elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.
音量
$12,549終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Aug 11, 2026, 11:08 AM ETリゾルバー
0x69c47De9D...Dems hold a clear polling edge in Michigan’s open gubernatorial race, where Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson leads Republican John James by roughly six to eight points in recent surveys, supporting the elevated probability traders assign to a Democratic sweep. The Senate contest remains tighter, with Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed holding a narrow lead over Republican Mike Rogers in September polling averages around two points, consistent with the lower odds placed on a Republican Senate win. Both seats opened after term-limited Democratic incumbents opted not to run, and post-primary polling since August has shown limited movement. The combination market reflects these separate dynamics, with traders pricing in the greater Democratic advantage for governor while treating the Senate outcome as more competitive. Upcoming debates and final campaign spending could still shift margins before November.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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