Marc-Antoine Bernier of the Coalition Avenir Québec holds a narrow lead in trader pricing for the Louis-Hébert seat, reflecting the riding’s recent CAQ history and the party’s localized rebound in Capitale-Nationale projections despite a province-wide PQ edge. Chloé Fauchon of the Parti Québécois sits second, supported by stronger current polling for her party and the open-seat dynamic after Geneviève Guilbault’s retirement. Conservative Marcos Archambault trails further, while Liberal and Québec solidaire candidates register minimal implied support. With the October 5 election three weeks away and nominations closing September 17, recent provincial polls showing stabilized but competitive party standings and ongoing leader debates keep the outcome closely contested; further shifts in regional turnout or late campaign momentum could widen the gap between the top two contenders.