Lebanon's parliamentary election landscape remains highly fragmented, with no party positioned to secure a clear majority amid sectarian power-sharing rules and coalition dynamics. Recent developments, including the 2025 election of President Joseph Aoun and formation of a Salam-led cabinet, have coincided with Hezbollah's diminished military and financial leverage after 2024-2025 clashes with Israel and the fall of the Assad regime in Syria. Parliament's extension of its mandate has delayed the vote originally slated for May 2026, adding uncertainty. Amal Movement and Lebanese Forces hold slightly higher implied probabilities than peers due to established Shia and Christian bases, yet traders price all outcomes low because success hinges on unpredictable alliances, turnout among undecided voters, and potential electoral reforms. Ongoing disarmament talks and regional tensions further cloud consolidation behind any single contender.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日アマル運動（アマル） 1.0%
レバノン軍（LF） 1.0%
ヒズボラ（ヒズブ） <1%
自由愛国運動（FPM） <1%
$676,855 Vol.
$676,855 Vol.
2026/05/30
アマル運動（アマル）
1%
レバノン軍（LF）
1%
ヒズボラ（ヒズブ）
1%
自由愛国運動（FPM）
<1%
タカッダム党
<1%
ラナ社会民主党（ラナ）
<1%
ワタニ連合（ワタニ）
<1%
カタエブ党（カタエブ）
<1%
マラダ運動（MM）
<1%
イスラム集団（IG）
<1%
レバノンのアラブ社会主義バアス党（バアス）
<1%
カット・アフマル
<1%
国民対話党（NDP）
<1%
進歩社会党（PSP）
<1%
独立運動（IM）
<1%
イスラム慈善事業協会（ICPA）
<1%
国民自由党（NLP）
<1%
マダ党（Mada）
<1%
尊厳運動（DM）
<1%
ReLebanon
<1%
アルメニア革命連盟（ARF）
<1%
ユニオン党（UP）
<1%
人民ナセル主義機構（PNO）
<1%
アマル運動（アマル） 1.0%
レバノン軍（LF） 1.0%
ヒズボラ（ヒズブ） <1%
自由愛国運動（FPM） <1%
$676,855 Vol.
$676,855 Vol.
2026/05/30
アマル運動（アマル）
$63,920 Vol.
1%
レバノン軍（LF）
$168,618 Vol.
1%
ヒズボラ（ヒズブ）
$56,367 Vol.
1%
自由愛国運動（FPM）
$80,518 Vol.
<1%
タカッダム党
$11,776 Vol.
<1%
ラナ社会民主党（ラナ）
$13,761 Vol.
<1%
ワタニ連合（ワタニ）
$7,539 Vol.
<1%
カタエブ党（カタエブ）
$7,370 Vol.
<1%
マラダ運動（MM）
$8,688 Vol.
<1%
イスラム集団（IG）
$8,631 Vol.
<1%
レバノンのアラブ社会主義バアス党（バアス）
$10,710 Vol.
<1%
カット・アフマル
$14,166 Vol.
<1%
国民対話党（NDP）
$47,398 Vol.
<1%
進歩社会党（PSP）
$55,015 Vol.
<1%
独立運動（IM）
$8,894 Vol.
<1%
イスラム慈善事業協会（ICPA）
$9,181 Vol.
<1%
国民自由党（NLP）
$9,599 Vol.
<1%
マダ党（Mada）
$28,113 Vol.
<1%
尊厳運動（DM）
$29,195 Vol.
<1%
ReLebanon
$9,819 Vol.
<1%
アルメニア革命連盟（ARF）
$10,552 Vol.
<1%
ユニオン党（UP）
$7,760 Vol.
<1%
人民ナセル主義機構（PNO）
$9,264 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.Lebanon's parliamentary election landscape remains highly fragmented, with no party positioned to secure a clear majority amid sectarian power-sharing rules and coalition dynamics. Recent developments, including the 2025 election of President Joseph Aoun and formation of a Salam-led cabinet, have coincided with Hezbollah's diminished military and financial leverage after 2024-2025 clashes with Israel and the fall of the Assad regime in Syria. Parliament's extension of its mandate has delayed the vote originally slated for May 2026, adding uncertainty. Amal Movement and Lebanese Forces hold slightly higher implied probabilities than peers due to established Shia and Christian bases, yet traders price all outcomes low because success hinges on unpredictable alliances, turnout among undecided voters, and potential electoral reforms. Ongoing disarmament talks and regional tensions further cloud consolidation behind any single contender.
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
マーケット開始日： Jan 6, 2026, 4:50 PM ET
音量
$676,855終了日
2026/05/31マーケット開始日
Jan 6, 2026, 4:50 PM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.Lebanon's parliamentary election landscape remains highly fragmented, with no party positioned to secure a clear majority amid sectarian power-sharing rules and coalition dynamics. Recent developments, including the 2025 election of President Joseph Aoun and formation of a Salam-led cabinet, have coincided with Hezbollah's diminished military and financial leverage after 2024-2025 clashes with Israel and the fall of the Assad regime in Syria. Parliament's extension of its mandate has delayed the vote originally slated for May 2026, adding uncertainty. Amal Movement and Lebanese Forces hold slightly higher implied probabilities than peers due to established Shia and Christian bases, yet traders price all outcomes low because success hinges on unpredictable alliances, turnout among undecided voters, and potential electoral reforms. Ongoing disarmament talks and regional tensions further cloud consolidation behind any single contender.
Parliamentary elections are expected to be held in Lebanon in May 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Lebanese Parliament.
If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Lebanese Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Lebanese Ministry of Interior and Municipalities (interior.gov.lb).
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
音量
$676,855終了日
2026/05/31マーケット開始日
Jan 6, 2026, 4:50 PM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...Lebanon's parliamentary election landscape remains highly fragmented, with no party positioned to secure a clear majority amid sectarian power-sharing rules and coalition dynamics. Recent developments, including the 2025 election of President Joseph Aoun and formation of a Salam-led cabinet, have coincided with Hezbollah's diminished military and financial leverage after 2024-2025 clashes with Israel and the fall of the Assad regime in Syria. Parliament's extension of its mandate has delayed the vote originally slated for May 2026, adding uncertainty. Amal Movement and Lebanese Forces hold slightly higher implied probabilities than peers due to established Shia and Christian bases, yet traders price all outcomes low because success hinges on unpredictable alliances, turnout among undecided voters, and potential electoral reforms. Ongoing disarmament talks and regional tensions further cloud consolidation behind any single contender.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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