Steve Scalise’s long tenure as incumbent and House Majority Leader anchors Republican dominance in Louisiana’s 1st Congressional District, a seat with an R+19 to R+20 Partisan Voter Index that has delivered consistent double-digit GOP margins. All major forecasters rate the race Safe or Solid Republican ahead of the November 3, 2026 open primary, where Scalise faces only token intra-party opposition and a single Democratic candidate with minimal fundraising. The district’s structural advantage, Scalise’s $10 million-plus war chest versus roughly $140,000 for the leading Democrat, and absence of recent polling shifts or scandals keep trader consensus at 95.9% for a Republican winner. A late withdrawal, major health event, or unforeseen scandal involving the incumbent could still reopen the contest, though no such developments have materialized.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$52,223 Vol.
$52,223 Vol.
2026/11/02
共和党
96%
民主党
5%
$52,223 Vol.
$52,223 Vol.
2026/11/02
共和党
$22,399 Vol.
96%
民主党
$29,823 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Steve Scalise’s long tenure as incumbent and House Majority Leader anchors Republican dominance in Louisiana’s 1st Congressional District, a seat with an R+19 to R+20 Partisan Voter Index that has delivered consistent double-digit GOP margins. All major forecasters rate the race Safe or Solid Republican ahead of the November 3, 2026 open primary, where Scalise faces only token intra-party opposition and a single Democratic candidate with minimal fundraising. The district’s structural advantage, Scalise’s $10 million-plus war chest versus roughly $140,000 for the leading Democrat, and absence of recent polling shifts or scandals keep trader consensus at 95.9% for a Republican winner. A late withdrawal, major health event, or unforeseen scandal involving the incumbent could still reopen the contest, though no such developments have materialized.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
音量
$52,223終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Steve Scalise’s long tenure as incumbent and House Majority Leader anchors Republican dominance in Louisiana’s 1st Congressional District, a seat with an R+19 to R+20 Partisan Voter Index that has delivered consistent double-digit GOP margins. All major forecasters rate the race Safe or Solid Republican ahead of the November 3, 2026 open primary, where Scalise faces only token intra-party opposition and a single Democratic candidate with minimal fundraising. The district’s structural advantage, Scalise’s $10 million-plus war chest versus roughly $140,000 for the leading Democrat, and absence of recent polling shifts or scandals keep trader consensus at 95.9% for a Republican winner. A late withdrawal, major health event, or unforeseen scandal involving the incumbent could still reopen the contest, though no such developments have materialized.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the LA-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$52,223終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...Steve Scalise’s long tenure as incumbent and House Majority Leader anchors Republican dominance in Louisiana’s 1st Congressional District, a seat with an R+19 to R+20 Partisan Voter Index that has delivered consistent double-digit GOP margins. All major forecasters rate the race Safe or Solid Republican ahead of the November 3, 2026 open primary, where Scalise faces only token intra-party opposition and a single Democratic candidate with minimal fundraising. The district’s structural advantage, Scalise’s $10 million-plus war chest versus roughly $140,000 for the leading Democrat, and absence of recent polling shifts or scandals keep trader consensus at 95.9% for a Republican winner. A late withdrawal, major health event, or unforeseen scandal involving the incumbent could still reopen the contest, though no such developments have materialized.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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