Incumbent Democrat Sean Casten holds a commanding position in the Illinois 6th district race heading into the November 3 general election, reflecting the seat's consistent Democratic lean and his established record since 2018. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Democratic, consistent with Casten's 2024 reelection margin and the suburban Chicago district's voter base. Casten secured a decisive primary victory in March, while Republican nominee Niki Conforti advanced after her own primary win but trails substantially in fundraising. Trader consensus at 96 percent for a Democratic outcome aligns with these structural factors. A shift would require a pronounced national Republican surge, major unforeseen developments affecting Casten, or a dramatic turnout reversal in the final weeks.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$43,100 Vol.
$43,100 Vol.
2026/11/02
ショーン・カステン（民主党）
96%
ニキ・コンフォルティ（共和党）
2%
$43,100 Vol.
$43,100 Vol.
2026/11/02
ショーン・カステン（民主党）
$19,954 Vol.
96%
ニキ・コンフォルティ（共和党）
$23,146 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Sean Casten holds a commanding position in the Illinois 6th district race heading into the November 3 general election, reflecting the seat's consistent Democratic lean and his established record since 2018. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Democratic, consistent with Casten's 2024 reelection margin and the suburban Chicago district's voter base. Casten secured a decisive primary victory in March, while Republican nominee Niki Conforti advanced after her own primary win but trails substantially in fundraising. Trader consensus at 96 percent for a Democratic outcome aligns with these structural factors. A shift would require a pronounced national Republican surge, major unforeseen developments affecting Casten, or a dramatic turnout reversal in the final weeks.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
音量
$43,100終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Sean Casten holds a commanding position in the Illinois 6th district race heading into the November 3 general election, reflecting the seat's consistent Democratic lean and his established record since 2018. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Democratic, consistent with Casten's 2024 reelection margin and the suburban Chicago district's voter base. Casten secured a decisive primary victory in March, while Republican nominee Niki Conforti advanced after her own primary win but trails substantially in fundraising. Trader consensus at 96 percent for a Democratic outcome aligns with these structural factors. A shift would require a pronounced national Republican surge, major unforeseen developments affecting Casten, or a dramatic turnout reversal in the final weeks.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IL-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$43,100終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Sean Casten holds a commanding position in the Illinois 6th district race heading into the November 3 general election, reflecting the seat's consistent Democratic lean and his established record since 2018. Nonpartisan forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Democratic, consistent with Casten's 2024 reelection margin and the suburban Chicago district's voter base. Casten secured a decisive primary victory in March, while Republican nominee Niki Conforti advanced after her own primary win but trails substantially in fundraising. Trader consensus at 96 percent for a Democratic outcome aligns with these structural factors. A shift would require a pronounced national Republican surge, major unforeseen developments affecting Casten, or a dramatic turnout reversal in the final weeks.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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