The CA-11 district's strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+36 Partisan Voter Index and Nancy Pelosi's consistent 80-plus percent victories, anchors trader consensus for a Democratic win at 98.3 percent. Nancy Pelosi's retirement opened the seat, and California's top-two primary on June 2 advanced state Sen. Scott Wiener and Supervisor Connie Chan, both Democrats, to the November 3 general election. Multiple forecasters rate the contest Solid Democratic, with no Republican candidate positioned to advance or compete effectively. Historical turnout patterns and the absence of a viable opposition candidate reinforce this positioning. Scenarios that could still shift the outcome remain limited to an unlikely candidate withdrawal, ballot disqualification, or major unforeseen development before election day.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$21,768 Vol.
$21,768 Vol.
2026/11/02
民主党
98%
共和党
1%
$21,768 Vol.
$21,768 Vol.
2026/11/02
民主党
$14,980 Vol.
98%
共和党
$6,788 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The CA-11 district's strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+36 Partisan Voter Index and Nancy Pelosi's consistent 80-plus percent victories, anchors trader consensus for a Democratic win at 98.3 percent. Nancy Pelosi's retirement opened the seat, and California's top-two primary on June 2 advanced state Sen. Scott Wiener and Supervisor Connie Chan, both Democrats, to the November 3 general election. Multiple forecasters rate the contest Solid Democratic, with no Republican candidate positioned to advance or compete effectively. Historical turnout patterns and the absence of a viable opposition candidate reinforce this positioning. Scenarios that could still shift the outcome remain limited to an unlikely candidate withdrawal, ballot disqualification, or major unforeseen development before election day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
音量
$21,768終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).The CA-11 district's strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+36 Partisan Voter Index and Nancy Pelosi's consistent 80-plus percent victories, anchors trader consensus for a Democratic win at 98.3 percent. Nancy Pelosi's retirement opened the seat, and California's top-two primary on June 2 advanced state Sen. Scott Wiener and Supervisor Connie Chan, both Democrats, to the November 3 general election. Multiple forecasters rate the contest Solid Democratic, with no Republican candidate positioned to advance or compete effectively. Historical turnout patterns and the absence of a viable opposition candidate reinforce this positioning. Scenarios that could still shift the outcome remain limited to an unlikely candidate withdrawal, ballot disqualification, or major unforeseen development before election day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-11 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$21,768終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...The CA-11 district's strong Democratic lean, reflected in its D+36 Partisan Voter Index and Nancy Pelosi's consistent 80-plus percent victories, anchors trader consensus for a Democratic win at 98.3 percent. Nancy Pelosi's retirement opened the seat, and California's top-two primary on June 2 advanced state Sen. Scott Wiener and Supervisor Connie Chan, both Democrats, to the November 3 general election. Multiple forecasters rate the contest Solid Democratic, with no Republican candidate positioned to advance or compete effectively. Historical turnout patterns and the absence of a viable opposition candidate reinforce this positioning. Scenarios that could still shift the outcome remain limited to an unlikely candidate withdrawal, ballot disqualification, or major unforeseen development before election day.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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