Incumbent Josh Harder secured a commanding primary win in June 2026, advancing alongside Republican John McBride in California's top-two system for the November general election. The district's partisan baseline, reflected in consistent Solid Democratic ratings from forecasters, underpins trader consensus around Harder's position. His substantial fundraising edge, with millions in cash reserves compared to McBride's limited resources, reinforces advantages in voter outreach and name recognition within the San Joaquin Valley and East Bay areas. Statewide polling trends showing Democratic leads in House races further align with current implied probabilities. Late developments such as a significant scandal, health issue, or unanticipated national political shift could still alter the outcome before Election Day.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$20,593 Vol.
$20,593 Vol.
2026/11/02
ジョシュ・ハーダー（民主党）
94%
ジョン・マクブライド（共和党）
6%
$20,593 Vol.
$20,593 Vol.
2026/11/02
ジョシュ・ハーダー（民主党）
$13,285 Vol.
94%
ジョン・マクブライド（共和党）
$7,309 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Josh Harder secured a commanding primary win in June 2026, advancing alongside Republican John McBride in California's top-two system for the November general election. The district's partisan baseline, reflected in consistent Solid Democratic ratings from forecasters, underpins trader consensus around Harder's position. His substantial fundraising edge, with millions in cash reserves compared to McBride's limited resources, reinforces advantages in voter outreach and name recognition within the San Joaquin Valley and East Bay areas. Statewide polling trends showing Democratic leads in House races further align with current implied probabilities. Late developments such as a significant scandal, health issue, or unanticipated national political shift could still alter the outcome before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
音量
$20,593終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Josh Harder secured a commanding primary win in June 2026, advancing alongside Republican John McBride in California's top-two system for the November general election. The district's partisan baseline, reflected in consistent Solid Democratic ratings from forecasters, underpins trader consensus around Harder's position. His substantial fundraising edge, with millions in cash reserves compared to McBride's limited resources, reinforces advantages in voter outreach and name recognition within the San Joaquin Valley and East Bay areas. Statewide polling trends showing Democratic leads in House races further align with current implied probabilities. Late developments such as a significant scandal, health issue, or unanticipated national political shift could still alter the outcome before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$20,593終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Josh Harder secured a commanding primary win in June 2026, advancing alongside Republican John McBride in California's top-two system for the November general election. The district's partisan baseline, reflected in consistent Solid Democratic ratings from forecasters, underpins trader consensus around Harder's position. His substantial fundraising edge, with millions in cash reserves compared to McBride's limited resources, reinforces advantages in voter outreach and name recognition within the San Joaquin Valley and East Bay areas. Statewide polling trends showing Democratic leads in House races further align with current implied probabilities. Late developments such as a significant scandal, health issue, or unanticipated national political shift could still alter the outcome before Election Day.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
外部リンクに注意してください。
外部リンクに注意してください。
よくある質問