Tom Cotton maintains a commanding position in the Arkansas Senate race due to the state's consistent Republican dominance, where the party has held the seat since 2014 and last Democratic win occurred in 2008. As the two-term incumbent seeking a third term, Cotton benefits from strong primary performance, established fundraising, and endorsements such as the NRA's recent "A" rating. Polling averages show him ahead by roughly 8-11 points, aligning with the state's 30-point Republican presidential margin in 2024. Challenger Hallie Shoffner, who won her primary but operates with limited resources in a heavily red electorate, faces structural barriers typical for Democrats in Arkansas. Forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Republican, though late developments like turnout shifts or unforeseen controversies could theoretically alter margins before the November 3 vote.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日アーカンソー州上院選挙の勝者
アーカンソー州上院選挙の勝者
$17,081 Vol.
$17,081 Vol.
2026/11/02
トム・コットン（共和党）
94%
ハリー・ショフナー（民主党）
5%
$17,081 Vol.
$17,081 Vol.
2026/11/02
トム・コットン（共和党）
$12,595 Vol.
94%
ハリー・ショフナー（民主党）
$4,486 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Arkansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Tom Cotton maintains a commanding position in the Arkansas Senate race due to the state's consistent Republican dominance, where the party has held the seat since 2014 and last Democratic win occurred in 2008. As the two-term incumbent seeking a third term, Cotton benefits from strong primary performance, established fundraising, and endorsements such as the NRA's recent "A" rating. Polling averages show him ahead by roughly 8-11 points, aligning with the state's 30-point Republican presidential margin in 2024. Challenger Hallie Shoffner, who won her primary but operates with limited resources in a heavily red electorate, faces structural barriers typical for Democrats in Arkansas. Forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Republican, though late developments like turnout shifts or unforeseen controversies could theoretically alter margins before the November 3 vote.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Arkansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
マーケット開始日： Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ET
音量
$17,081終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Arkansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Tom Cotton maintains a commanding position in the Arkansas Senate race due to the state's consistent Republican dominance, where the party has held the seat since 2014 and last Democratic win occurred in 2008. As the two-term incumbent seeking a third term, Cotton benefits from strong primary performance, established fundraising, and endorsements such as the NRA's recent "A" rating. Polling averages show him ahead by roughly 8-11 points, aligning with the state's 30-point Republican presidential margin in 2024. Challenger Hallie Shoffner, who won her primary but operates with limited resources in a heavily red electorate, faces structural barriers typical for Democrats in Arkansas. Forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Republican, though late developments like turnout shifts or unforeseen controversies could theoretically alter margins before the November 3 vote.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Arkansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
音量
$17,081終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...Tom Cotton maintains a commanding position in the Arkansas Senate race due to the state's consistent Republican dominance, where the party has held the seat since 2014 and last Democratic win occurred in 2008. As the two-term incumbent seeking a third term, Cotton benefits from strong primary performance, established fundraising, and endorsements such as the NRA's recent "A" rating. Polling averages show him ahead by roughly 8-11 points, aligning with the state's 30-point Republican presidential margin in 2024. Challenger Hallie Shoffner, who won her primary but operates with limited resources in a heavily red electorate, faces structural barriers typical for Democrats in Arkansas. Forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Republican, though late developments like turnout shifts or unforeseen controversies could theoretically alter margins before the November 3 vote.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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