French Hill maintains an 87% implied probability in the AR-02 House race due to the district’s consistent Republican lean, where Donald Trump carried it by 8.5 points in 2024, combined with Hill’s incumbency and role as House Financial Services Committee chair. The seat has remained in Republican hands since 2011, and forecasting models rate it Likely Republican with projected margins around 15 points. Recent August polling showed Democrat Chris Jones, a nuclear engineer and 2022 gubernatorial nominee, holding a narrow lead, prompting the DCCC to target the district and drawing endorsements from Kamala Harris and Pete Buttigieg. Traders appear to weigh these early indicators against the district’s fundamentals and historical midterm patterns favoring the incumbent party’s candidate in similar terrain.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$12,274 Vol.
$12,274 Vol.
2026/11/02
フレンチ・ヒル（共和党）
87%
クリス・ジョーンズ（民主党）
14%
$12,274 Vol.
$12,274 Vol.
2026/11/02
フレンチ・ヒル（共和党）
$4,224 Vol.
87%
クリス・ジョーンズ（民主党）
$8,050 Vol.
14%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).French Hill maintains an 87% implied probability in the AR-02 House race due to the district’s consistent Republican lean, where Donald Trump carried it by 8.5 points in 2024, combined with Hill’s incumbency and role as House Financial Services Committee chair. The seat has remained in Republican hands since 2011, and forecasting models rate it Likely Republican with projected margins around 15 points. Recent August polling showed Democrat Chris Jones, a nuclear engineer and 2022 gubernatorial nominee, holding a narrow lead, prompting the DCCC to target the district and drawing endorsements from Kamala Harris and Pete Buttigieg. Traders appear to weigh these early indicators against the district’s fundamentals and historical midterm patterns favoring the incumbent party’s candidate in similar terrain.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
マーケット開始日： Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
音量
$12,274終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).French Hill maintains an 87% implied probability in the AR-02 House race due to the district’s consistent Republican lean, where Donald Trump carried it by 8.5 points in 2024, combined with Hill’s incumbency and role as House Financial Services Committee chair. The seat has remained in Republican hands since 2011, and forecasting models rate it Likely Republican with projected margins around 15 points. Recent August polling showed Democrat Chris Jones, a nuclear engineer and 2022 gubernatorial nominee, holding a narrow lead, prompting the DCCC to target the district and drawing endorsements from Kamala Harris and Pete Buttigieg. Traders appear to weigh these early indicators against the district’s fundamentals and historical midterm patterns favoring the incumbent party’s candidate in similar terrain.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AR-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
音量
$12,274終了日
2026/11/03マーケット開始日
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETリゾルバー
0x2F5e3684c...French Hill maintains an 87% implied probability in the AR-02 House race due to the district’s consistent Republican lean, where Donald Trump carried it by 8.5 points in 2024, combined with Hill’s incumbency and role as House Financial Services Committee chair. The seat has remained in Republican hands since 2011, and forecasting models rate it Likely Republican with projected margins around 15 points. Recent August polling showed Democrat Chris Jones, a nuclear engineer and 2022 gubernatorial nominee, holding a narrow lead, prompting the DCCC to target the district and drawing endorsements from Kamala Harris and Pete Buttigieg. Traders appear to weigh these early indicators against the district’s fundamentals and historical midterm patterns favoring the incumbent party’s candidate in similar terrain.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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