Apple’s decision to deprioritize its spatial computing headset lineup explains the overwhelming 96.5% market-implied odds against a Vision Pro 2 launch before 2027. Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman and analyst Ming-Chi Kuo reported that Apple canceled the lighter Vision Air project and placed the premium successor “on ice,” redirecting engineers to AI smart glasses slated for late 2027. The original Vision Pro and its 2025 M5 refresh faced limited adoption due to weight, price, and comfort constraints, prompting leadership under incoming CEO John Ternus to refocus resources. While an unforeseen acceleration in display or materials technology could theoretically compress timelines, credible supply-chain and reporting consensus shows no active development path supporting a 2026 release.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
4% 確率
新規
新規
2026/12/31
はい
4% 確率
新規
新規
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple’s decision to deprioritize its spatial computing headset lineup explains the overwhelming 96.5% market-implied odds against a Vision Pro 2 launch before 2027. Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman and analyst Ming-Chi Kuo reported that Apple canceled the lighter Vision Air project and placed the premium successor “on ice,” redirecting engineers to AI smart glasses slated for late 2027. The original Vision Pro and its 2025 M5 refresh faced limited adoption due to weight, price, and comfort constraints, prompting leadership under incoming CEO John Ternus to refocus resources. While an unforeseen acceleration in display or materials technology could theoretically compress timelines, credible supply-chain and reporting consensus shows no active development path supporting a 2026 release.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Dec 12, 2025, 5:54 PM ET
音量
$6,327終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Dec 12, 2025, 5:54 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple’s decision to deprioritize its spatial computing headset lineup explains the overwhelming 96.5% market-implied odds against a Vision Pro 2 launch before 2027. Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman and analyst Ming-Chi Kuo reported that Apple canceled the lighter Vision Air project and placed the premium successor “on ice,” redirecting engineers to AI smart glasses slated for late 2027. The original Vision Pro and its 2025 M5 refresh faced limited adoption due to weight, price, and comfort constraints, prompting leadership under incoming CEO John Ternus to refocus resources. While an unforeseen acceleration in display or materials technology could theoretically compress timelines, credible supply-chain and reporting consensus shows no active development path supporting a 2026 release.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$6,327終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Dec 12, 2025, 5:54 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Apple’s decision to deprioritize its spatial computing headset lineup explains the overwhelming 96.5% market-implied odds against a Vision Pro 2 launch before 2027. Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman and analyst Ming-Chi Kuo reported that Apple canceled the lighter Vision Air project and placed the premium successor “on ice,” redirecting engineers to AI smart glasses slated for late 2027. The original Vision Pro and its 2025 M5 refresh faced limited adoption due to weight, price, and comfort constraints, prompting leadership under incoming CEO John Ternus to refocus resources. While an unforeseen acceleration in display or materials technology could theoretically compress timelines, credible supply-chain and reporting consensus shows no active development path supporting a 2026 release.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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