Apple’s strategic pivot away from mixed-reality headsets drives the near-certain market consensus against a Vision Pro 2 launch before 2027. Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman and analyst Ming-Chi Kuo reported in May and June 2026 that Apple canceled the lighter Vision Air project, placed any successor on ice, and reassigned engineers to AI smart glasses slated for late 2027. Incoming CEO John Ternus, who took over September 1, endorsed the narrowed roadmap focused on two glasses products rather than updated headsets, following the M5 Vision Pro refresh in October 2025 and muted consumer response to the original model. While a surprise acceleration remains possible if competitive pressure intensifies or internal priorities shift abruptly, supply-chain terminations such as Samsung’s G-VR micro-OLED panels and consistent reporting across sources make a 2026 release highly improbable.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日はい
5% 確率
新規
新規
2026/12/31
はい
5% 確率
新規
新規
2026/12/31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple’s strategic pivot away from mixed-reality headsets drives the near-certain market consensus against a Vision Pro 2 launch before 2027. Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman and analyst Ming-Chi Kuo reported in May and June 2026 that Apple canceled the lighter Vision Air project, placed any successor on ice, and reassigned engineers to AI smart glasses slated for late 2027. Incoming CEO John Ternus, who took over September 1, endorsed the narrowed roadmap focused on two glasses products rather than updated headsets, following the M5 Vision Pro refresh in October 2025 and muted consumer response to the original model. While a surprise acceleration remains possible if competitive pressure intensifies or internal priorities shift abruptly, supply-chain terminations such as Samsung’s G-VR micro-OLED panels and consistent reporting across sources make a 2026 release highly improbable.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
マーケット開始日： Dec 12, 2025, 5:54 PM ET
音量
$6,191終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Dec 12, 2025, 5:54 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple’s strategic pivot away from mixed-reality headsets drives the near-certain market consensus against a Vision Pro 2 launch before 2027. Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman and analyst Ming-Chi Kuo reported in May and June 2026 that Apple canceled the lighter Vision Air project, placed any successor on ice, and reassigned engineers to AI smart glasses slated for late 2027. Incoming CEO John Ternus, who took over September 1, endorsed the narrowed roadmap focused on two glasses products rather than updated headsets, following the M5 Vision Pro refresh in October 2025 and muted consumer response to the original model. While a surprise acceleration remains possible if competitive pressure intensifies or internal priorities shift abruptly, supply-chain terminations such as Samsung’s G-VR micro-OLED panels and consistent reporting across sources make a 2026 release highly improbable.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
音量
$6,191終了日
2027/01/01マーケット開始日
Dec 12, 2025, 5:54 PM ETリゾルバー
0x65070BE91...Apple’s strategic pivot away from mixed-reality headsets drives the near-certain market consensus against a Vision Pro 2 launch before 2027. Bloomberg’s Mark Gurman and analyst Ming-Chi Kuo reported in May and June 2026 that Apple canceled the lighter Vision Air project, placed any successor on ice, and reassigned engineers to AI smart glasses slated for late 2027. Incoming CEO John Ternus, who took over September 1, endorsed the narrowed roadmap focused on two glasses products rather than updated headsets, following the M5 Vision Pro refresh in October 2025 and muted consumer response to the original model. While a surprise acceleration remains possible if competitive pressure intensifies or internal priorities shift abruptly, supply-chain terminations such as Samsung’s G-VR micro-OLED panels and consistent reporting across sources make a 2026 release highly improbable.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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