Recent U.S. and Taiwanese intelligence assessments, alongside Pentagon reporting, highlight that China’s People’s Liberation Army continues to face shortfalls in amphibious lift, joint command readiness, and sustainment capacity needed for a full-scale invasion. Xi Jinping’s 2026 military purges have further disrupted operational competence, contributing to visibly reduced PLA air and naval activity around Taiwan in recent months. Beijing has emphasized coercive gray-zone measures, coast guard patrols, and blockade rehearsals over kinetic action, with no fixed timeline or mobilization signals for unification by 2027. These factors align with trader consensus pricing an invasion by December 31, 2027, as unlikely, though scheduled exercises, leadership statements, and any shifts in cross-strait incidents remain potential variables within the resolution window.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSì
12% probabilità
$3,236,346 Vol.
$3,236,346 Vol.
31 dic 2027
Guadagna il 3.25%
Sì
12% probabilità
$3,236,346 Vol.
$3,236,346 Vol.
31 dic 2027
Guadagna il 3.25%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent U.S. and Taiwanese intelligence assessments, alongside Pentagon reporting, highlight that China’s People’s Liberation Army continues to face shortfalls in amphibious lift, joint command readiness, and sustainment capacity needed for a full-scale invasion. Xi Jinping’s 2026 military purges have further disrupted operational competence, contributing to visibly reduced PLA air and naval activity around Taiwan in recent months. Beijing has emphasized coercive gray-zone measures, coast guard patrols, and blockade rehearsals over kinetic action, with no fixed timeline or mobilization signals for unification by 2027. These factors align with trader consensus pricing an invasion by December 31, 2027, as unlikely, though scheduled exercises, leadership statements, and any shifts in cross-strait incidents remain potential variables within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Mercato aperto: Mar 17, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
Volume
$3,236,346Data di fine
1 gen 2028Mercato aperto
Mar 17, 2026, 7:29 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Recent U.S. and Taiwanese intelligence assessments, alongside Pentagon reporting, highlight that China’s People’s Liberation Army continues to face shortfalls in amphibious lift, joint command readiness, and sustainment capacity needed for a full-scale invasion. Xi Jinping’s 2026 military purges have further disrupted operational competence, contributing to visibly reduced PLA air and naval activity around Taiwan in recent months. Beijing has emphasized coercive gray-zone measures, coast guard patrols, and blockade rehearsals over kinetic action, with no fixed timeline or mobilization signals for unification by 2027. These factors align with trader consensus pricing an invasion by December 31, 2027, as unlikely, though scheduled exercises, leadership statements, and any shifts in cross-strait incidents remain potential variables within the resolution window.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$3,236,346Data di fine
1 gen 2028Mercato aperto
Mar 17, 2026, 7:29 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S. and Taiwanese intelligence assessments, alongside Pentagon reporting, highlight that China’s People’s Liberation Army continues to face shortfalls in amphibious lift, joint command readiness, and sustainment capacity needed for a full-scale invasion. Xi Jinping’s 2026 military purges have further disrupted operational competence, contributing to visibly reduced PLA air and naval activity around Taiwan in recent months. Beijing has emphasized coercive gray-zone measures, coast guard patrols, and blockade rehearsals over kinetic action, with no fixed timeline or mobilization signals for unification by 2027. These factors align with trader consensus pricing an invasion by December 31, 2027, as unlikely, though scheduled exercises, leadership statements, and any shifts in cross-strait incidents remain potential variables within the resolution window.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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