The extended timeline until Australia's next federal election, due by 2028, sustains tight probabilities across multiple contenders because party primary votes remain fragmented and leadership dynamics fluid. Recent polling shows Labor under Anthony Albanese facing subdued primary support while the Coalition under Angus Taylor and One Nation under Pauline Hanson compete closely on first preferences, with preference flows in the instant-runoff system amplifying uncertainty over which leader can form government. Potential leadership transitions within Labor or the Coalition, alongside the performance of minor parties and independents, keep outcomes open, as traders price in the scope for polling swings, internal party contests, or policy shifts to alter the path to a majority before the next House vote.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoAnthony Albanese 41%
Pauline Hanson 26%
Angus Taylor 20%
Jim Chalmers 10.3%
$30,641 Vol.
$30,641 Vol.
23 set 2028
Anthony Albanese
41%
Pauline Hanson
26%
Angus Taylor
20%
Jim Chalmers
10%
Robbie Katter
1%
Larissa Waters
1%
Anthony Albanese 41%
Pauline Hanson 26%
Angus Taylor 20%
Jim Chalmers 10.3%
$30,641 Vol.
$30,641 Vol.
23 set 2028
Anthony Albanese
$2,234 Vol.
41%
Pauline Hanson
$23,814 Vol.
26%
Angus Taylor
$2,695 Vol.
20%
Jim Chalmers
$1,020 Vol.
10%
Robbie Katter
$391 Vol.
1%
Larissa Waters
$487 Vol.
1%
Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Australia by September 23, 2028.
This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Australia following the 2028 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election.
To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by June 30, 2029, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Australia however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The extended timeline until Australia's next federal election, due by 2028, sustains tight probabilities across multiple contenders because party primary votes remain fragmented and leadership dynamics fluid. Recent polling shows Labor under Anthony Albanese facing subdued primary support while the Coalition under Angus Taylor and One Nation under Pauline Hanson compete closely on first preferences, with preference flows in the instant-runoff system amplifying uncertainty over which leader can form government. Potential leadership transitions within Labor or the Coalition, alongside the performance of minor parties and independents, keep outcomes open, as traders price in the scope for polling swings, internal party contests, or policy shifts to alter the path to a majority before the next House vote.
Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Australia by September 23, 2028.
This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Australia following the 2028 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election.
To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by June 30, 2029, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Australia however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Australia following the 2028 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election.
To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by June 30, 2029, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Australia however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercato aperto: Jun 10, 2026, 1:56 PM ET
Volume
$30,641Data di fine
23 set 2028Mercato aperto
Jun 10, 2026, 1:56 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Australia by September 23, 2028.
This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Australia following the 2028 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election.
To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by June 30, 2029, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Australia however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The extended timeline until Australia's next federal election, due by 2028, sustains tight probabilities across multiple contenders because party primary votes remain fragmented and leadership dynamics fluid. Recent polling shows Labor under Anthony Albanese facing subdued primary support while the Coalition under Angus Taylor and One Nation under Pauline Hanson compete closely on first preferences, with preference flows in the instant-runoff system amplifying uncertainty over which leader can form government. Potential leadership transitions within Labor or the Coalition, alongside the performance of minor parties and independents, keep outcomes open, as traders price in the scope for polling swings, internal party contests, or policy shifts to alter the path to a majority before the next House vote.
Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Australia by September 23, 2028.
This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Australia following the 2028 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election.
To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by June 30, 2029, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Australia however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to the next individual who is officially appointed and sworn in as Prime Minister of Australia following the 2028 parliamentary election. If an election is called early, this market will immediately resolve to the individual who is officially appointed and sworn in after that election.
To count for resolution, the individual must be formally sworn in. Any interim or caretaker Prime Minister will not count toward the resolution of this market.
If no such Prime Minister is sworn in by June 30, 2029, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Australia however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$30,641Data di fine
23 set 2028Mercato aperto
Jun 10, 2026, 1:56 PM ETRisolutore
0x69c47De9D...The extended timeline until Australia's next federal election, due by 2028, sustains tight probabilities across multiple contenders because party primary votes remain fragmented and leadership dynamics fluid. Recent polling shows Labor under Anthony Albanese facing subdued primary support while the Coalition under Angus Taylor and One Nation under Pauline Hanson compete closely on first preferences, with preference flows in the instant-runoff system amplifying uncertainty over which leader can form government. Potential leadership transitions within Labor or the Coalition, alongside the performance of minor parties and independents, keep outcomes open, as traders price in the scope for polling swings, internal party contests, or policy shifts to alter the path to a majority before the next House vote.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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