Trader consensus assigns an 82% implied probability to no model reaching 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026, driven primarily by the roughly 45-point gap between current leaders like Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5 at 1506 and the threshold, alongside only incremental Elo gains from recent releases. Anthropic holds the next-highest odds at 15% due to its repeated frontier positioning across text and coding arenas, though even its latest variants show modest rather than accelerated progress. OpenAI, Google, and others trail further behind at low single-digit probabilities, reflecting slower relative gains and the compressed timeline to year-end that makes large capability jumps unlikely without major breakthroughs.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoL'intelligenza artificiale di quale azienda arriverà per la prima volta a 1550 su Chatbot Arena nel 2026?
Nessuno nel 2026 82%
Anthropic 15%
OpenAI 4.5%
xAI <1%
$124,495 Vol.
$124,495 Vol.

Nessuno nel 2026
82%

Anthropic
15%

OpenAI
5%

xAI
1%

Alibaba
1%

1%

DeepSeek
1%

Z.ai
1%

Mistral
<1%
Nessuno nel 2026 82%
Anthropic 15%
OpenAI 4.5%
xAI <1%
$124,495 Vol.
$124,495 Vol.

Nessuno nel 2026
82%

Anthropic
15%

OpenAI
5%

xAI
1%

Alibaba
1%

1%

DeepSeek
1%

Z.ai
1%

Mistral
<1%
Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Mercato aperto: Feb 13, 2026, 4:42 PM ET
Risolutore
0x2F5e3684c...Results from the "Text Arena" section on the leaderboard/text tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control) will be used to resolve this market.
If no company's model reaches 1550+ Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None in 2026".
If the first model to reach a 1550+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Risolutore
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus assigns an 82% implied probability to no model reaching 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026, driven primarily by the roughly 45-point gap between current leaders like Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5 at 1506 and the threshold, alongside only incremental Elo gains from recent releases. Anthropic holds the next-highest odds at 15% due to its repeated frontier positioning across text and coding arenas, though even its latest variants show modest rather than accelerated progress. OpenAI, Google, and others trail further behind at low single-digit probabilities, reflecting slower relative gains and the compressed timeline to year-end that makes large capability jumps unlikely without major breakthroughs.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato


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